Only Day 4 at the ATP Masters 1000 event at Indian Wells, and the draw is already filled with intrigue. The second round provides a challenge for many of our top seeds with every opponent in this article having been in the Top 50 at some point in their career with Jannik Sinner facing a current Top 50 player (and former Top 10 player for that matter) in Richard Gasquet. Could there be some upsets at this early juncture?
ATP Indian Wells Day 4 Predictions
Holger Rune vs Mackenzie McDonald
Head-to-head: First meeting
Mackenzie McDonald is having an insane season. He’s 7-1 against players ranked outside the top 50 and 5-5 against those inside that bracket. McDonald’s ground game was always extremely potent but moments of brilliance off the first serve have given him an extra boost (see his win over Nadal at the Australian Open).
Still, Holger Rune isn’t just a Top 50 player. McDonald still struggles against the sheer force of the very best in the world and Rune should almost certainly be considered a player of that calibre. The Dane is a ferocious returner and should fare well with some extra time to set up either wing. These courts really fall into Rune’s wheelhouse–Indian Wells could be a very happy hunting ground for him for years to come.
Prediction: Rune in 2
Hubert Hurkacz vs Alexei Popyrin
Head-to-head: Hurkacz 1-0 Popyrin
When will Hubert Hurkacz’s bomb of a first serve stop bombing? His lowest first serve win-percentage in a single match this season has been 74%–three out of every four first serve points won. Ludicrous numbers from the Pole who will be able to hold his serve anywhere. Historically, the blustery conditions of Indian Wells haven’t made a difference and, in the serving form of his life, they shouldn’t make a difference this year either.
Alexei Popyrin at his best could trouble Hurkacz but the Aussie has lost a slight edge to his game of late. Still, he just has to hold serve enough times in this match-up to give himself a chance which could happen standing at six foot five. The sets might be close but Hurkacz is on a plain of confidence behind his service delivery that should see this go his way.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 3
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Pedro Martinez
Head-to-head: First meeting
A ranking of around #120 sounds about right for Pedro Martinez. Even on clay let alone hard-courts, the Spaniard hasn’t done anything of note for the last 52 weeks.
Though there has been the odd questionable result, Felix Auger-Aliassime’s form has generally remained strong, even in his defeats. Martinez shouldn’t have the weaponry required to keep this close.
Prediction: Auger-Aliassime in 2.
Jannik Sinner vs Richard Gasquet
Head-to-head: First meeting
This one could be interesting. The title in Auckland has deservedly reestablished Richard Gasquet inside the top 50. He’s had moments in most matches he’s played where he’s looked close to matching his former physicality. The courts are slow and bounce high making them perfect for the Frenchman’s high velocity one-hander.
It’s unfortunate he’s playing Jannik Sinner because actually pulling off the win seems a little too much of a stretch. We think Sinner could be caught off guard by the conditions (he’s only played four matches here) and the change in tactics (peppering the ad-court rather than targeting it) which could be enough to make this a first round thriller. The talented 21-year-old can find that fifth gear when he needs it however.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
