The final four is set in Monterrey. In a rare occurrence on the WTA, most of the favorites advanced with the four finalists all top-5 seeds in the draw. Top-seed Caroline Garcia is likely the tournament favorite, as she is in great form and the one semifinalist who is yet to drop a set in the tournament. She has a tough opponent in Elise Mertens who dominated her quarterfinal to cruise to the semis. Donna Vekic and Lin Zhu are both WTA titlists who have a real shot as well and face off in the earlier match. Both matches are analyzed and predicted below!
WTA Monterrey Semifinal Predictions
Donna Vekic vs Lin Zhu
Head-to-head: 1-0 Vekic
This is an interesting meeting between two talented veterans who seem to have both found good form after a few years playing below their former level. Their one prior meeting was back in 2015 when Vekic was still a teenager, though she was able to pull out a close victory. Vekic has an impressive 8-2 record on the year with her only losses to elite players in Aryna Sabalenka and Maria Sakkari. Zhu has been strong as well already with a title in Hua Hin and a good performance at the Australian Open. She has played well here in Monterrey but has been fortunate with a pretty easy draw. Vekic has not faced a seed either and had a bit more trouble but has relied on her serve to help win big points.
Vekic did have to win a close quarterfinal that went to a deciding-set tiebreak. Her style of play prevents too many long rallies, so it was not a ton of court time and should not be concerning. Vekic’s power tennis has helped her to success this year, and her losses have been to similarly powerful players who are able to hit with her. Zhu does not have that power and can give Vekic a bit of trouble but not enough to win the match. Vekic will take it and advance to the final.
Prediction: Vekic in 3
Embed from Getty Images
Carolina Garcia vs Elise Mertens
Head-to-head: 4-2 Garcia
These two opponents are quite familiar with each other due to their extended time as top players in the game. While Garcia leads the head-to-head, Mertens has taken two of the last three meetings, each of which were on hard courts. Garcia had a great finish to 2022 with a WTA Finals title and has played well this year though has yet to win a title. She has brought her best tennis to Monterrey, spending just 3 hours and 25 minutes on court total through her three matches. Her strong groundstrokes made her a difficult opponent on hard courts. Mertens provides a difficult challenge, especially seeing her dominant 6-2 6-2 semifinal victory. Mertens has been inconsistent this year but her big serve and good movement for a tall player give her the tools to trouble Garcia.
This match should be tight and competitive throughout. Garcia is the favorite but she has struggled against strong opponents this year. Mertens has plenty of tools to give Garcia trouble and pull off the upset. However, Garcia has been in good form and her play so far this week shows that she is sharp and locked in. If she plays like she has in her previous three matches, Mertens will not be able to do enough and Garcia will hit through her on the way to victory.
Prediction: Garcia in 2
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
