ATP Dubai Final Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev

Daniil Medvedev Australian Open

Despite the fact 21 of the 30 matches played so far have been finished in straight sets, it’s been a high quality tournament at the ATP 500 in Dubai. Andrey Rublev was able to come through Alexander Zverev converting a tense sixth match point whilst Daniil Medvedev put a halt to a four-match losing-streak against his biggest rival, Novak Djokovic, handing the Serb his first loss of the season. Medvedev and Rublev are great friends but both would love to get the title here–we’ve tried predict who lifts the trophy on Saturday.

ATP Dubai Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev

Head-to-head: Medvedev 4-2 Rublev

Daniil Medvedev is currently on a 13-match win-streak and has won titles in Doha and Rotterdam back-to-back. However, he himself admitted he didn’t have to find anything special to rediscover his form.

“I didn’t do anything special for it but I’m happy I managed to change the momentum, [be] back into the top 10, and not have that many points to defend. I’m just happy to be back in this consistent top rhythm, which I’m going to try to hold on to as much as possible.”
It sounds like a throwaway quote but this nod to consistency is so key here. Medvedev is one of the most rhythmic players on the tour–both on-court, with some of the greatest rally temperament on the tour, and over the course of his seasons.
  • His insane streak against Top 10 players at the end of 2020 going into 2021 was preceded by four head-scratching losses on his favourite surface.
  • His US Open title in 2021 and Australian Open final in 2022 were followed by a very unorthodox year of losses against top players.

Medvedev has historically found his best tennis in waves and his win against Novak Djokovic capping this 13-match win-streak suggests he’s reached that peak feeling again on the court. Big serves and aggressive forehands in the tighter moments (and a fantastic drop-shot at 5-4 30-30 in the second set) against the Serb led to one of the most one-sided wins for Medvedev in their rivalry.

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Andrey Rublev may have won their last meeting but there’s a good argument to be made Medvedev was in the pits of an extended slump against the best in the world. It was never a favourable match-up at the best of times but, with Medvedev officially red-hot after an electric win over the World #1, it feels as though this can only go one way.
Prediction: Medvedev in 2.

Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports