After some brilliant showings from Carlos Alcaraz and Cameron Norrie, the ATP’s Golden Swing goes on to Santiago without them, giving the other players in the draw a chance to break out. As always, we here at LWOT will preview and predict every match. Who do you think will win?
ATP Santiago Day 2 Predictions
Dusan Lajovic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Head-to-head: Lajovic 1-0 Ugo Carabelli
After going winless in Australia to start the year, Lajovic has managed to find some form on the South American clay courts, reaching quarterfinals in both Buenos Aires and Rio, notching wins over Sebastian Baez and Diego Schwartzman. Despite an 11-6 record, Ugo Carabelli’s season has been a bit of a disappointment thus far, failing to qualify in Concepcion and Cordoba, and getting mixed results throughout. This week, he defeated Facundo Diaz Acosta and Thiago Seyboth Wild to qualify. Lajovic allowed the young Argentine just four games in their match two weeks ago in Buenos Aires and I expect the experienced Serb to win out again.
Prediction: Lajovic in 2
Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Taberner
Head-to-head: Carballes Baena 2-0 Taberner
Carballes Baena has struggled to make his mark on the season far, winning just two of his seven matches in 2023. The 29-year-old has not exactly performed poorly on the Golden Swing though, beating Albert Ramos-Vinolas and going a set up in each of his three losses. Taberner, in as a lucky loser, is in the midst of a ranking plunge that could see him outside of the Top 200 soon. The 25-year-old had to retire from his first-round match at the Tenerife Challenger three weeks ago and is playing his first tournament since, beating Jozef Kovalik but losing to Yannick Hanfmann. Both players really need the win here, Taberner more desperately, but I believe Carballes Baena’s level has been higher recently.
Prediction: Carballes Baena in 3
Facundo Bagnis vs Marco Cecchinato
Head-to-head: Bagnis 3-1 Cecchinato
Bagnis, a finalist here in 2021, got his first back-to-back wins of the season last week in Rio qualifying. The Argentine beat Joao Reis Da Silva and Yannick Hanfmann but had to retire to Laslo Djere in the first round. Cecchinato has been in poor form this year as well, though one of his two wins in 2023 actually came against Bagnis. The Italian won 6-2 7-6 in their Cordoba first-round clash. With Bagnis’ fitness up in the air, I see Cecchinato as the favorite here.
Prediction: Cecchinato in 2
Dominic Thiem vs Cristian Garin
Head-to-head: Thiem 1-0 Garin
The last two players currently in the Top 100, both used to being much higher in the rankings, especially former No. 3 Dominic Thiem. The Austrian is 2-7 on the season and though he got a win over Alex Molcan in Buenos Aires, the Golden Swing has not gone to plan for him. In Rio, Thiem lost a huge battle to Thiago Monteiro in the third-set tiebreak, the Brazilian buoyed by his home crowd. Garin, Santiago champion from two years ago, is also floundering. The Chilean is 2-4 in tour-level matches and his loss last week to Pedro Martinez showed just how far he is from his best. This is a tough match to call, close to a coin flip for me. I will lean toward Thiem as I see a resurgence from the Austrian as more likely.
Prediction: Thiem in 3
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane USAToday Sports
