Day four at the Rio De Janeiro Open and things are starting to heat up. We have plenty of matches to sink our teeth into including the towering Nicolas Jarry’s fight against Pedro Martinez, veteran Albert Ramos-Vinolas’s match-up against Daniel Elahi Galan and the battle between clay-court stalwarts Laslo Djere and Dusan Lajovic. We also have predictions for matches featuring Carlos Alcaraz.
ATP Rio De Janeiro Day 4 Predictions
Nicolas Jarry vs Pedro Martinez
Head-to-head: Martinez 1-0 Jarry
Nicolas Jarry turned the heads of the collective tennis world in defeating Lorenzo Musetti 6-4 6-1 on clay. It’s almost definitely not a flash in the pan either–his qualifying matches against Cerundolo and Carabelli (two players on the verge of breaking the top 100) were just as comfortable. The Chilean will hold his serve at this tournament in this mood until he meets a truly great returner.
Pedro Martinez is not the man for the job. Sure, at his best he’s a fantastic clay-courter but there’s nothing jaw-dropping in his return game. Jarry has shown he can replicate the kind of serving performance that made Musetti look amateurish–there’s no reason he doesn’t bring that same level to this match against a relatively out-of-form player.
Prediction: Jarry in 2.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas vs Daniel Elahi Galan
Head-to-head: First meeting
Daniel Elahi Galan notched the win of his life against Stefanos Tsitsipas at last year’s US Open and followed this up with quarterfinal runs at San Diego and Naples. However the win in New York was way too one-sided to say Tsitsipas was close to his best and those hard-court ATP tournament runs were generally against fellow clay-courters. Realistically, and respectfully, Galan’s current level is probably below his ranking, closer to outside the top 100.
It’s therefore hard not to trust the veteran in this sort of match-up. Albert Ramos Vinolas’s ranking of #47 is also probably fairly generous but there’s no doubt he can play top 30 clay-court tennis against lower-ranked players. He played ten clay-court 250-level tournaments last year and reached at least the semifinals in half of them. He is very tried and tested in this sort of match-up and will make Galan raise his level to beat him. We’re not convinced the Columbian is up to the task.
Prediction: Ramos-Vinolas in 2
Laslo Djere vs Dusan Lajovic
Head-to-head: 2-2 (all levels)
Laslo Djere’s steady aggression can be a sight to behold. Square him off against a top player and he’ll look just a little less powerful but there’s no doubt the Serbian’s consistent strikes will leave you awestruck. He is not an easy player to beat on his day.
That said, despite the 20 or so places in the rankings between them, Dusan Lajovic looks like the player with the higher ceiling at the moment. A slew of hard-court losses last year overshadow the fact Djere’s compatriot is a machine on this surface. His groundstrokes are heavy and difficult for any player to deal with–his most recent scalps off his baseline prowess include Sebastian Baez and Diego Schwartzman.
It’s taken a while for the tour to give Lajovic clay-court matches against non-top-30 players but the Golden Swing has arrived just in time. He should be the favourite with majority of the firepower in what could be a gripping round of 16.
Prediction: Lajovic in 3.
Main Photo Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
