The extremely stacked draw of the WTA 500 in Doha has been funnelled down to four semifinalists. Big serving Veronika Kudermetova has been making deep runs at events for the last year but has gone title-less for the last two seasons–can she change that against Iga Swiatek? In the other half, Maria Sakkari came through three exceptionally tough opponents to earn a match-up with one of the steadiest players on Tour, Jessica Pegula. We’ve tried to predict the outcome of both matches.
WTA Doha Semifinal Predictions
Iga Swiatek vs Veronika Kudermetova
Head-to-head: Swiatek 2-0 Kudermetova
Where every other player in the draw had to come through hell to get to this stage of the tournament, Iga Swiatek received a walkover in her quarterfinal–meaning she’s dropped one game enroute to the semifinals. Fresh as ever and in slower conditions that suit her game to a tee, it’s difficult to see how Veronika Kudermetova hurts her.
- Kudermetova does not play particularly aggressively off the first ball on return which will stop her from damaging Swiatek’s relatively weak serve.
- From the baseline, Swiatek’s heavy strikes will make her the favourite in extended rallies.
- Though Kudermetova can rush the Swiatek return with her first-serve, her second-serve will be eaten alive by the Pole on these courts.
The only spanner in the works for Swiatek could be the pressure she’s recently felt to maintain her results from last year. Given the match-up and the conditions fall significantly in her favour though, we don’t think it’ll take long for the world #1 to steady herself.
Prediction: Swiatek in 2
Maria Sakkari vs Jessica Pegula
Head-to-head: Sakkari 4-2 Pegula
Maria Sakkari and Jessica Pegula have one of the most decorated rivalries of last year, meeting four times and splitting their head-to-head two apiece. Every time, the victor won in straight sets.
- Pegula won at the Australian Open and Guadalajara. Steadiness was well-rewarded in the volatile altitude of Guadalajara whilst the fast courts of Melbourne suited Pegula’s flat strokes.
- Sakkari won in Doha and the WTA Finals. Both tournaments exhibited slower conditions with Sakkari benefitting from the time afforded to set up her huge strikes on both wings–this was especially significant at this same tournament in Doha.
There is a mental component to this match too, however. Sakkari has a latter-stage bug in tournaments and Pegula knows this all too well. She will likely look to overheat the forehand, playing less aggressively than usual, asking Sakkari to dictate.
We think the Greek is up to the task. There are free points to be won off her great first-serve on these hard-courts and the heavy conditions reward heavy strikes. There will be some ropey moments but Sakkari should ultimately progress to the final.
Prediction: Sakkari in 3
Main Photo credit: Susan Mullane USA Today
