As the ATP Tour transitions from the first Slam of the year, Montpellier is set to host the Open Sud de France for the 12th consecutive year. The French men have dominated this 250-level event in the past, but this year just one player is seeded in their home country. Day 1 of this event will conclude qualifying and feature two prominent Round 1 matches. Who do you think will advance?
ATP Montpellier Day 1 Predictions
Luca Nardi vs Benoit Paire
Head-to-Head: first meeting
19-year-old Italian Luca Nardi has risen over 500 ranking spots over the past 18 months. He is looking to transition his ITF and Challenger level success onto the Tour. A win in the final round of qualifying over Benoit Paire would be massive for his 2023 prospects. The veteran Frenchman had a very disinterested 2022 season. Paire won just four of the 26 tour-level matches he played last season. Nardi will have to deal with a very pro-Paire crowd, but I like his chances to fend off a 33-year-old who looks less interested in tennis every time he takes the court.
Prediction: Nardi in 3
Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Arthur Cazaux
Head-to-Head: Blancaneaux 1-0 Cazaux
Young Frenchmen Geoffrey Blancaneaux and Arthur Cazaux are set to square off with an opportunity to earn their way into the Montpellier main draw. Blancaneaux won their only previous meeting, 6-4 7-6, back in 2021. Cazaux has had a very fruitful start to his season. The 20-year-old came for the qualies to reach back-to-back finals in Nonthaburi, winning one title. He has won 14 of 15 matches to start the season. His consistency, especially from the service line, is hard to pick against.
Prediction: Cazaux in 2
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Constant Lestienne
Head-to-Head: Lestienne 1-0 Basilashvili
30-year-olds Nikoloz Basilashvili and Constant Lestienne will match up in Round One in Montpellier. Basilashvili has had a troubling last seven months. Since Wimbledon, he is just 4-12 and has beaten just one opponent ranked inside the top 125. Lestienne, on the other hand, started to find some tour-level success towards the end of last season. The Frenchman has reached two tour-level semifinals since September. I believe Lestienne’s consistency and ability to use the crowd will frustrate Basilashvili.
Prediction: Lestienne in 2
Richard Gasquet vs Arthur Fils
Head-to-Head: first meeting
In a meeting between the old French guard and the new guard, Richard Gasquet squares off against 18-year-old Arthur Fils. Gasquet opened the season with his 16th career title, taking down Cameron Norrie in the Auckland final. Although he has momentary lapses that can rear some ugly set scores, the 36-year-old can find his former top-ten ability when he needs it. Fils is a youngster the France Tennis Federation is very high on, and rightfully so. At this time last year, he was ranked 619 in the world. He currently sits at No. 164. He has reached back-to-back Challenger finals to start 2023, winning his first in Oeiras. Although he should be able to work some magic with his forehand, I do not think Fils is emotionally mature enough to take down Gasquet in Montpellier.
Prediction: Gasquet in 2
Main Photo from Getty.
