We end the third round on Day 6 of the Australian Open. The eight remaining spots in the Round of 16 will be decided on Saturday. As always, our writers here at LastWordOnTennis share their thoughts on all the matches with you. We split the Day 6 matches between two articles–with the other article featuring Novak Djokovic vs Grigor Dimitrov. Predicting these matches are Josh Hall, Damian Kust, and Shane Black. Who do you think will win?
Australian Open Day 6 Men’s Predictions
Andrey Rublev vs Dan Evans
Josh:
Evans will need to be at his best to win this. However, he has gotten the better of Rublev in the past. Rublev will need to keep his unforced error count down if he is to come out on top. The variety of Dan Evans game will take this deep.
Prediction: Rublev in 5
Damian:
Historically, this has been a tough matchup for Rublev, who’s tied with Evans at 4-4 (3-3 on outdoor hard courts). The Brit will try to hold him off with his knifing slice and try to turn defense into offense this way. It’s not going to be easy, but Rublev is the better player and should find a way to advance if he holds his nerve.
Prediction: Rublev in 5
Shane:
Despite the disparity in their rankings, Andrey Rublev and Dan Evans have split their eight career matchups. Both men have dropped just one set en route to the third round and are playing confidently. Evans should be able to disrupt Rublev’s rhythm, but in the end, I think Rublev’s power breaks through the Brit.
Prediction: Rublev in 5
Jenson Brooksby vs Tommy Paul
Josh:
I love the style of Jenson Brooksby. He will be so tough from the baseline; I am not sure if Paul has the consistency over a longer format to take this match. The draw for this quarter has opened beautifully the winner could make a deep run.
Prediction: Brooksby in 4
Damian:
It was such a methodical performance from Brooksby on Thursday as he dispatched Ruud and kept fiding his backhand. The slightly slower conditions at this year’s Australian Open seem to really suit the 22-year-old, who also benefits from the low-bouncing Dunlop balls. Maybe it’s enough to give him the advantage over Paul, but it should be really tight.
Prediction: Brooksby in 5
Shane:
Jenson Brooksby is coming off the win of his career over No. 2 seed Casper Ruud. He has the variety and determination to trouble anyone in this draw. However, I believe Tommy Paul is fully equipped to stand in and hit for hours with Brooksby. In a tight match, Paul’s newfound serve will be the difference.
Prediction: Paul in 5
Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur
Josh:
Bonzi completed a great comeback against Pablo Carreno Busta, concluding in a last set tiebreak. De Minaur has a good record against the bigger servers on tour. He may go on to be the last remaining Aussie later in this tournament. His footspeed around the court will be a deciding factor in this.
Prediction: de Minaur in 3
Damian:
De Minaur has underwhelmed in Melbourne a few times before, but he’s got a great chance to advance and really should take it. Bonzi’s a great competitor though and he proved it in his Carreno Busta comeback. The Australian will need to stay as sharp as he has been in the first two rounds.
Prediction: de Minaur in 4
Shane:
Benjamin Bonzi is coming off a terrific victory from two sets down to take out Pablo Carreno Busta. The Frenchman has won six of eight matches to start the year. Alex de Minaur has a massive advantage with the rowdy home crowd on his side. He will not give away anything to Bonzi and should prevail.
Prediction: de Minaur in 4
Andy Murray vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Josh:
Roberto Bautista Agut is slowly declining but still producing good tennis on the tour. He will be the fresher man in this match up. Murray played a grueling match with Kokkinakis, and that will be a massive factor in this one.
Prediction: Bautista Agut in 4
Damian:
Murray is coming off two consecutive five-setters, which at this stage of his career could turn out to be extremely tough to recover from. Especially against a physical monster such as Bautista Agut, who pretty much destroyed him on two separate occasions in 2022. He probably won’t have enough left in the tank.
Prediction: Bautista Agut in 4
Shane:
Andy Murray has done the improbable in back-to-back matches. That said, he has already spent ten hours and 34 minutes on court. Roberto Bautista Agut will use this to his advantage and force Murray into long, drawn-out rallies. I believe he wears down Murray and capitalizes.
Prediction: Bautista Agut in 4
Main Photo from Getty.
