If you were looking for something to kick start the year, the ATP tournament in Adelaide has the semifinal match for you. Whilst Sebi Korda’s match against Yoshihito Nishioka promises to be a high quality affair, it’s the other semifinal, the thirteenth meeting between Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev, that will likely leave jaws hanging. Their thirteenth meeting… Unlucky for some? We’ve tried to predict the outcomes of both semifinals.
ATP Adelaide Semifinal Predictions
Sebastian Korda vs Yoshihito Nishioka
Head-to-head: Korda 2-0 Nishioka
Not only does “Sebi” Korda lead this head-to-head 2-0, he’s allowed Yoshihito Nishioka a total of eight games in these meetings. Delving a bit deeper however, one of those meetings was on indoor hard-courts where Nishioka’s lack of serving prowess harmed him and the other was on the clay of Parma when Korda went on to win his first and only title so far.
Still, even in conditions that suit Nishioka, the match-up is favorable for Korda. He has the returning ability to take advantage of Nishioka’s shorter serves and, unlike a few of his compatriots, has the backhand temperament to live with Nishioka’s hooked lefty forehands. The Japanese won’t go down without a fight but Korda should have too much in the tank for him. That’s no slight on Nishioka mind you – if Korda continues his current trajectory, he may have too much in the tank for the vast majority of the tour this year.
Prediction: Korda in 2.
Daniil Medvedev vs Novak Djokovic
Head-to-head: Djokovic 8-4 Medvedev
We pick up where we left off in Astana. Medvedev was forced to retire at one set apiece during a match that was shaping up to be an absolute three-set classic (yes, we were given their round-robin match in Turin that ended in a third-set tiebreak but that was more surrealist than classic). That day, both players were playing out of their minds.
Here in Adelaide, Djokovic appears to be in fine form, his win over Quentin Halys really forcing him to find his best tennis early in the season whilst Medvedev appears to have put his woes from last year behind him, stealing a first set against Lorenzo Sonego in the first round (nine set points saved) before dispatching Kecmanovic and Khachanov with ease.
Assuming both players are playing close to their best just like they did in Astana, it’ll be a question of court speed. In Astana, the courts were grindingly slow with Medvedev taking the advantage from the word “go.” Had he not retired, it looked highly likely he would have squeaked through with most of the percentages falling his way. Contrastingly in Australia, the courts are fast. It doesn’t take a genius to notice Djokovic thrives in these conditions–it’s no coincidence he hasn’t lost a match in Australia since 2018.
It will probably go three sets–we’d expect nothing less from these two–but, even against the best defender in the world, even in this very tight match-up, Djokovic’s efficiency in playing quick-fire tennis should inevitably be too hot to handle.
Prediction: Djokovic in 3
Main Photo from Getty.
