The United Cup semifinals are set, with few major surprises in the nations represented. The 1-3 seeds: Greece, Poland, and USA respectively all won their city finals to advance to the semifinal round. Italy was given the final qualifying spot, advancing in a tiebreaker over Croatia by just one set. The Italian team is certainly formidable, seeded fifth and pushing Poland to the final mixed doubles rubber to decide their meeting. Day one of the semifinals features two singles matches between the top-ranked women and second-ranked men. There is a clear favourite in each match but pressure will certainly be on each player to perform and put their team on the right track before the deciding matches on Friday.
United Cup Semifinal Day 1 Predictions
Poland vs USA
Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula
Head-to-head: Swiatek 4-1 Pegula
Jessica Pegula won their first meeting in 2019 but Swiatek has won all four of their meetings since. Each of those four matches were played last year in either quarterfinal or semifinal rounds, a testament to how strongly each player performed throughout 2022. Three of the four meetings were on outdoor hard court, and Pegula won just one set in those matches. This will surely be the match of the day pitting the #1 and #3 players in the world against each other.
Iga Swiatek, meanwhile, has picked up where she left off in 2022 at the United Cup, winning each of her three matches in straight sets. Pegula has played well in her last matches but did drop her first match in Sydney to Petra Kvitova. Pegula’s powerful groundstrokes may be enough for her to outmuscle Swiatek with the Pole a decent matchup for the American on a hard court, but it is simply impossible to pick against Swiatek right now in her recent form.
Prediction: Swiatek in 3
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Daniel Michalski vs Frances Tiafoe
Head-to-head: first meeting
Frances Tiafoe will probably have to contend with the pressure of being behind the eight-ball in the tie, but whatever happens in the women’s singles match, this is an incredibly favourable matchup. Daniel Michalski is ranked outside the top-250 in the world, had never played a tour-level match before the United Cup, and his best results have all come on clay. In fact, all eight of his career Futures titles have been on clay court. He has not yet won a Challenger.
Evidence of Michalski’s troubles have been on display at the United Cup, losing all three of his matches in straight sets. Tiafoe has thrived in the #2 role for the US team, winning all three of his matches. He is an excellent hard-court player riding the momentum of his career-best 2022, where he reached his first major semifinal at the US Open and cracked the top-20 for the first time. This one will not be close and Tiafoe will cruise to victory to even the tie.
Prediction: Tiafoe in 2
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Greece vs Italy
Maria Sakkari vs Martina Trevisan
Head-to-head: Trevisan 1-0 Sakkari
This match would be excellent on clay. Their only previous meeting, which was contested on the clay back in 2020, certainly. Maria Sakkari, however, is far more comfortable away from the clay than Martina Trevisan. The Italian is a relatively diminutive baseline grinder who will have a hard time keeping up with Sakkari’s power. She struggled against a similar player in Beatriz Haddad Maia in her first match, losing 6-2 6-0.
Sakkari will have pressure on her since the Greek team is so lopsided this is essentially a must-win. Fortunately for the Greeks, this has not posed a problem so far, with Sakkari winning all of her matches in straight sets without even having to play a tiebreak. Sakkari looks in good form, and her strength will overpower Trevisan who does not have enough to hit back on this surface.
Prediction: Sakkari in 2
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Lorenzo Musetti vs Michail Pervolarakis
Head-to-head: first meeting
This should be another one-sided affair. Michail Pervolarakis has never been ranked inside the top-300 and has a 2-11 career record in tour-level matches. Lorenzo Musetti enjoyed a breakout 2022, winning his first two career titles and finishing the season inside the top-25. While he has always been at his best on the clay, he reached the third round at the US Open and the Paris Masters quarterfinals on hard courts, as well as winning the title in Naples on hard court against his compatriot Matteo Berrettini. Musetti has not really been tested yet while Pervolarakis has been selected to play just one match, losing it 6-1 6-1. Musetti has experience, skill, and form on his side and will have no problem evening the tie at 1-1.
Prediction: Musetti in 2
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