The 2022 season was a bizarre one in many ways. Starting off with the controversy swirling around Novak Djokovic, and ending with a teenager as world #1 in the shape of Carlos Alcaraz. This is something no one would have predicted. All the same, the established old men of Djokovic and Nadal won three of the four majors on offer. So, what will the 2023 ATP season hold?
Carlos Alcaraz
What a nice way to begin a preview, with a teenage world #1 and US Open title holder. But Alcaraz deserves to go first in this sequence, considering the year he experienced. It all started the previous US Open in 2021, that’s when the general public began to take notice. Alcaraz backed that up in November 2021 with the Next gen title in Turin, which indicated he was ready to make the jump.
In 2022, he won the Miami Open beating Tsitsipas along the way and Casper Ruud in the final. He then won Madrid two months later in May joining a select group of players to beat Nadal and Djokovic in the same tournament. After going down to Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinal of the French Open, Alcaraz had a lean time of it. He lost to Jannik Sinner in the fourth round at Wimbledon and had a non-descript hardcourt season in the United States.
This did not prevent him from finding the inspiration to win US Open. After taking out Sinner in the quarterfinal in a revenge mission, one of the longest matches in US Open history, Alcaraz found himself in the final against Casper Ruud in a winner take all match. Whoever won the final would become number 1 and the loser number 2.
Ruud had his chances in the third set to take over the match but Alcaraz became inspired when it appeared he was tiring out. Alcaraz that night displayed the heart of a champion, and got his reward as the youngest ever number 1 player. Since then Alcaraz has gone off the boil and suffered injuries. This should not be a surprise.
Where does this put Alcaraz and his prospects for 2023? It is going for Alcaraz to maintain this level into 2023. It is quite normal for a young player to have a dip. Coach Juan Carlos Ferrero will be aware of this, and will try to guide Alcaraz through the inevitable choppy waters. Fans will have to be patient as the media will not be if he falters. I would be impressed if Alcaraz wins a big title in 2023. I don’t see him retaining the #1 ranking but his priority will be to win at least one major tournament, and a few smaller ATP events to keep his confidence high.
Novak Djokovic
It is possible to argue that Djokovic is still the best player in the world. However, due to his refusal to get vaccinated in Australia in January, Djokovic could not defend his Australian Open title. In fact, it was not until May that Djokovic’s season really began in earnest and he was subsequently barred from competing in the USA for the same reason.
Djokovic came back with a bang defeating Tsitsipas in the Foro Italico final 7-5, 6-0. He then lost out to Alcaraz in the semifinal of Madrid. However, in the French Open quarterfinal Djokovic looked off the pace against Nadal and even though he had an opportunity to take a lead in the match, he faltered badly. Djokovic succumbed in four sets and probably needed some time off to digest the defeat. That propelled him to make something of his year by taking the Wimbledon title, taking down first time finalist Nick Kyrgios. This allowed Djokovic to match Pete Sampras’ seven Wimbledon titles, which is outstanding.
Djokovic had a good autumn, winning smaller events in Kazakhstan and Israel, making the final in Bercy and before winning a sixth ATP Finals title in Turin, beating second seed Casper Ruud in the final in a match that was more one-sided than the scoreline suggests.
This saw Djokovic end the year ranked 5, his lowest since 2017 when he finished 12. No doubt Djokovic feels he should be back to number 1 where he thinks he belongs. 2023 will be a big year for him. So far, he has demonstrated he can deal with most of what the ‘Next Gen’ have to throw at him, despite his advancing years. In theory this defies logic, you would expect Djokovic to have a major long term decline. In practice this has not happened and does not look like happening either. The tone of 2023 will depend on the Australian Open. Djokovic will play and if Djokovic wins a 10th Australian Open, there will be no stopping him. Conversely if he goes out before the semifinals, that could affect his confidence.
At Wimbledon, Djokovic will be going for an 8th title to match Roger Federer. This is something that would have been inconceivable just a few years ago. Djokovic won three Wimbledon titles before his 30th birthday but has dominated since. I expect Djokovic to have another stellar year and add to his Grand Slam tally. The Next Gen do not have the collective firepower to push him aside. The two teenagers Alcaraz and Rune will cause him problems but they need help from their Next Gen colleagues.
Rafael Nadal
Nadal had what I would call a typical year for him. A year when no one knew what to expect coming in, wins one or two major titles then fades in the autumn. That may seem a harsh assessment but it cannot be harsh if he continues to win major titles! It is on the face of it an unexplainable proposition. A part time player in many ways but holds the most important record in tennis. Nadal has to be given a lot of credit. As far as 2022 goes, he came in off the back of long term injury issues and ended winning the Australian Open!
The final against Medvedev lasted 5 hrs and 41 minutes… Medvedev went two sets up but despite being 10 years younger, Medvedev was the player who ran out of gas and waved the while flag. 5 hrs and 41 minutes is an extremely long time to run around to win a match.
This has been the beauty of Nadal’s success, outlasting opponents into submission, he has done this time and again over a 17-year period. However, as in life, everything has consequences. And in Nadal’s case, he cannot play a full season. This proved to be the case where Nadal had an opportunity to complete the calendar slam. In his Wimbledon quarterfinal against Taylor Fritz, he was in so much pain and yet played on. Remarkably, Fritz was not able to take advantage but Nadal pulled out of the semifinal against Kyrgios.
Nadal went into the US Open with more health issues and got dumped out in the fourth round by Francis Tiafoe. Nadal did not make much of an impression during the indoor season in Europe, missing several weeks after the birth of his son. Even so, Nadal still finished the year ranked number 2 despite only playing 14 tournaments.
Where does this leave Nadal for 2023? Believing he is still capable of winning big tournaments and grand slam events. I wonder what toll this will take on Nadal’s body in the long run but Nadal plays in the moment, the issues can be addressed down the line. Nadal will at the very least be looking to win his 15th French Open title.
Casper Ruud
Ruud had what they call in journalistic circles a breakout year. He began the year ranked eighth in the world and finished in the top three. Last year Ruud played in the Miami final, French Open final, US Open final and World Tour final. Unfortunately he lost every one of them but let us look at the positives. Ruud is a player who proves that hard work can pay off. Anyone who watches him play soon comes to the conclusion he is not one of the more gifted players.
Ruud has worked very hard on his footwork, his preparation and his wanting to be a top player. He has cultivated a very good forehand and is working on his transition game. However, there a few issues. The first is his backhand. He has worked hard on his forehand and footwork but his backhand needs some work. It amuses me how often one hand backhand players get criticism from fans and media alike when they miss a shot or struggle with a high ball. But there are quite a substantial number of two handers who struggle on the backhand side and this does not get noticed. Ruud is one of those players; his backhand is quite poor and is easily targeted by his opponents. This should be a top priority for Ruud if he wants to advance further.
The other issue is lack of self-belief, evident in all of the big finals he played this year. In the final in Turin against Djokovic, he never looked like he believed he could win the match. This is a bit disconcerting as we are talking about elite level matches. In the US Open final, there was an opportunity to take control deep in the third set but he backed off, allowing Alcaraz to regroup and run away with it. This happened because on the many break points he created, he was unable to convert as he played passively, waiting for mistakes that did not come.
These things give his detractors a lot of ammunition to criticise him. It is up to Ruud now to work on the technical issues and mental game and succeed. As for 2023, very difficult to predict how it will go. Ability wise, Ruud is between top 15 and 10 than top five, and could go back into that pack. Or he accepts the challenge and rises to it, making the mental hurdle to become a champion by believing in his strategy more in the big matches.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
What a strange year for Tsitsipas. He makes this list primarily for being an absolutely controversial figure. Controversy of his own making. Tsitsipas feels he should be one of the very best players in the world, ranked inside the top three and a Grand Slam champion. But as of now there is no evidence as to why this should be the case. If Tsitsipas wants to reach that rarefied atmosphere, he has to work on it and strive to improve both technically and mentally.
2022 was not a great year for him. He lost the Australian Open semifinal to Medvedev and didn’t do achieve much at the hard court Masters events in Indian Wells and Miami. Tsitsipas did win Monte Carlo but got humbled in the Italian Open final against Djokovic, losing the second set to love. Tsitsipas then lost to Kyrgios in both Halle and Wimbledon; which was a wild match and he got fined for his conduct. Later on, Tsitsipas lost the Cincinnati final to Borna Coric. During the indoor season Tsitsipas lost to Djokovic yet again, this time in the Bercy semifinal in a third set tiebreak. And rounded off his season with a defeat to Rublev at the World Tour Finals, prompting more unsavoury comments in the press conference.
Tsitsipas has a lot of work to do if he wants to realise his potential and win a grand slam tournament, He worked briefly with Thomas Enqvist and is now working extensively with Mark Philippoussis. At the age of 24 it is too early to write him off. He has the talent but must work on the technical issues, and stay calmer in critical situations. Despite his controversies it would be good for tennis if Tsitsipas can win a major tournament in 2023. His best chances lie in the Australian Open and French Open. At this stage Wimbledon and the US Open is a hurdle to far for him.
Other Players to Watch
Daniil Medvedev
A player who was ranked number 1 briefly is regressing. Has not recovered from his loss to Nadal in Australia and is retreating further and further behind the baseline. For a player 1 metre 98 tall, he needs to play further up the court if he wants to win again, simple as that.
Holger Rune
A teenager who came on strong in 2022, culminating in his great win against Djokovic in Paris Bercy. He also looked good in his match against Alcaraz in the same tournament. Can be a threat in the big tournaments in 2023.
Alexander Zverev
Zverev suffered a horrendous injury in his French Open semifinal against Nadal in June. A match which barely went two sets but was close to three hours. That is just not sustainable, Zverev looked like he was too hyped up for the occasion. Zverev will like to get himself back in the conversation as one of the top players. Like Tsitsipas yet to win a major tournament.
Matteo Berrettini
Showed he is one of the top guys on grass. Sadly missed Wimbledon due to a Covid19 positive test. However, his backhand is preventing him progressing further on other surfaces. He needs to do more than slice the ball and wait for a forehand to do the job.
Nick Kyrgios
Surprisingly reached the Wimbledon final this year but hasn’t done much in singles play since. An unknown quantity for 2023, primarily due to his temperament and perhaps slight lack of fitness for the top level which is where he wants to be.
Alexander Rublev
A dangerous player at his best but as of now, a bit too one dimensional in his play and outlook. Needs to cultivate a proper transition game if he wants to go further.
Felix Auger Aliassime
If Kyrgios is too volatile, Auger-Aliassime is too calm. I want to see him fired up more and show more determination to win at the top level.
Jannik Sinner
Played some good matches against Alcaraz this year but folded badly after going two sets up against Djokovic in the Wimbledon quarterfinal. Has potential but again comes down to self-belief.
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