Day 5 at the ATP Finals in Turin offers one match where the outcome will not change anything and where the runner-up of the Green Group will be decided. The latter match takes place between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz. Both players are in their maiden ATP Finals and on the brink of putting themselves into the semifinals in Turin. As always, at LWOT have the preview and prediction for both Day 5 matches.
ATP Finals Day 5 Predictions
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Taylor Fritz
Head-to-Head: Auger-Aliassime 0-1 Fritz
Laver Cup teammates Felix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz are set to square off for the second time, though this matchup has heavy implications on the line. The winner will finish as the runner-up in the Green Group and enter the 2022 Nitto ATP Finals semifinals in their maiden appearance. Both players are 1-1 this week, with straight-set wins over Rafael Nadal and a loss to Casper Ruud.
Auger-Aliassime has played incredible tennis of late. A 16-1 end to the season helped launch him into his first ATP Finals. The Canadian has always been solid from the baseline, but his improved first-serve and willingness to attack the net have moved his game into a different stratosphere. Across the net, Fritz loves to set up his forehand up the line. The 25-year-old finds his best success when he is very aggressive, attacking any ball above his waist.
Expect Auger-Aliassime and Fritz to battle from the baseline all match long. I give the edge to whatever player is more aggressive, something I expect the American to implement early and often.
Prediction: Fritz in 3
Rafael Nadal vs Casper Ruud
Head-to-Head: Nadal 1-0 Ruud
The one flaw of a group play system is that some matches can be rendered obsolete. That is precisely what has happened to what would typically be a very highly anticipated match between Rafael Nadal and Casper Ruud. Nadal has lost both his matches in Turin in straight sets, whereas Ruud has won both. Nadal is eliminated from semifinal contention, and Ruud has already won the Green Group. That said, when Nadal is on the court, he will be laser-focused. I fully expect the 36-year-old Spaniard to be ready to battle in his last match of the season. Nadal dominated his only meeting with Ruud 6-3 6-3 6-0 in the Roland Garros Final back in June.
The difference for Ruud this week has been his first serve. He has connected on over 68 percent of his first serves with 19 aces and just four double faults. In his last match against Fritz, Ruud hit his flat serve on the Ad court out wide with incredible success. The problem for Ruud is that serve will go right into Nadal’s forehand. How Ruud handles his service games will ultimately be the decider in this match.
I expect Nadal to come out very aggressive. He does not want to leave the 2022 ATP Finals without winning a match, let alone a set. That said, Ruud has been too consistent thus far in Turin for me to think Nadal can take two sets off of him.
Prediction: Ruud in 3
Main Photo from Getty.
