It should be an entertaining fourth day at the ATP Paris Masters with all eight round of 16 matches set to be played in Bercy. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the schedule, including Novak Djokovic vs Karen Khachanov. But who will reach the quarterfinals?
ATP Paris Masters Day 4 Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov
Head-to-head: first meeting
Having become the youngest #1 in ATP history, Alcaraz is an interesting period of his career, entering tournaments such as this one with a degree pressure he has not experienced before. In fairness to Alcaraz, not many others know what it’s like to occupy the ranking’s penthouse nevermind at the age of 19. The Spaniard’s results have been a mixed bag since the US Open; he suffered a first-round loss to David Goffin in Astana but also reached the semifinals in Basel, where he lost to the tour’s form-man in Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Grigor Dimitrov also reached a semifinal on indoor hard this autumn, putting together a solid run in Vienna after largely struggling throughout the year. For the Bulgarian, it was his first semifinal since Monte Carlo. This week, Dimitrov has been solid in Paris, getting straight-set wins over Botic van de Zandschulp and Fabio Fognini. Alcaraz also looked good in his opener, defeating Yoshihito Nishioka 6-4 6-4. It will be an interesting match for sure, but Alcaraz is the world #1 and the favourite for a reason.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
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Alex de Minaur vs Frances Tiafoe
Head-to-head: de Minaur 3-0 Tiafoe
Alex de Minaur pulled off his best win of the season (and probably his career ) in his last match, taking out last year’s finalist and 2020 champion Daniil Medvedev. De Minaur was also an underdog in his opener in Bercy, but managed to take out the in-form Sebastian Korda in three sets. Frances Tiafoe has managed to recapture the form he showed earlier this autumn, recording his first back-to-back wins on indoor hard of the season, going 1-2 in Stockholm and Vienna, failing to defend a semifinal and final.
The American has looked better in Paris though, not dropping a set in wins over Lorenzo Sonego and young gun Jack Draper. The 23-year-old Australian has won their three previous matches, though Tiafoe took a set in each meeting. He will also be fresher entering the contest, spending half as much time on court as de Minaur so far in the week. He enters the match a slight underdog looking at their head-to-head, but lean towards Tiafoe in this match.
Prediction: Tiafoe in 3
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Pablo Carreno Busta vs Tommy Paul
Head-to-head: first meeting
Pablo Carreno Busta has taken time to adjust to indoor hard this autumn but has been getting better with every event, beating Vienna finalist Denis Shapovalov in his most recent match. That was one of Carreno Busta’s best career wins on indoor hard. Tommy Paul, meanwhile, is coming off the best win of his career overall. The American had struggled on indoor hard coming into Paris and already pulled off a decent upset in the first round over Roberto Bautista Agut before taking out Rafael Nadal in the second round.
The second seed was playing his first match since a fourth-round loss to Frances Tiafoe at the US Open, meaning Nadal has lost half his matches this season to Americans. Both players likely view their opponent as a good draw at this point in the event and should have a lot of belief going into it. Paul, who seems to be experiencing a truly special week, should just about have the edge though an improving Carreno Busta will not make it easy for the American.
Prediction: Paul in 3
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Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Gilles Simon
Head-to-head: Auger-Aliassime 2-0 Simon
Two players at opposite stages of their careers. Felix Auger-Aliassime is emerging as a true threat on the ATP Tour while Simon is making his final stand. The Canadian’s talent was never at question but Auger-Aliassime developed a reputation for falling at the final hurdle in his young career before this year. The 22-year-old cracked the code in 2022, winning his first ATP title in Rotterdam before tearing off three straight in October. Auger-Aliassime arrived Paris having won titles in Florence, Antwerp, and Vienna, winning 13 straight matches. That said, Auger-Aliassime did look tired in his opener as he edged out Mikael Ymer in a third-set tiebreak.
Simon entered his final tournament with no pressure. The 37-year-old did well at his final French Open back in May but has largely struggled for wins even on the Challenger Tour level for the past 15 months. This week, however, the Frenchman has had two incredible victories, defeating Andy Murray who had beaten him in 16 of their previous 18 meetings before this week and ending the ATP Finals hopes of world #11 Taylor Fritz. With Simon playing way above his level and Auger-Aliassime showing signs of vulnerability in his last match, this is set up to be an incredible battle and the match of the day. It’s hard not to go with the Cinderella story here.
Prediction: Simon in 3
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