The final ATP Masters event of the year is a truly loaded one in Paris. Not since the French Open have Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Rafael Nadal, and Daniil Medvedev played in the same draw. Today we’re excited to predict Medvedev’s second-round meeting with Alex De Minaur and the tough second-rounds of Taylor Fritz, Pablo Carreno Busta and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
ATP Paris Day 3 Predictions
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Denis Shapovalov
Head-to-head: 4-2 Carreno Busta
Given Pablo Carreno Busta and Denis Shapovalov are practically next to each other in the world rankings, this is a pretty brutal second-round for the seeded Spaniard. After all, Shapovalov is finally starting find to his form. After going ten consecutive events mid-season without making a quarterfinal, he’s made the final of Seoul, the semis in Tokyo, the quarters in Stockholm and the final of Vienna. The steady indoor conditions have done his game a world of good, seemingly happier than ever to trade from that backhand wing where he used to look for his forehand at all costs.
It may be too big an ask for Carreno Busta to defeat Shapovalov in this form. He can get outmuscled from the back of the court and he doesn’t get as many free points on serve as some of his Top 50 peers. Call us optimistic but we’re expecting Shapovalov to turn up firing.
Prediction: Shapovalov in 3
Taylor Fritz vs Gilles Simon
Head-to-head: 1-1
Gilles Simon’s career hung by a thread against Andy Murray in the previous round. From 3-5 down in the second set however, he reeled off 10 of the last 13 games to down the former world #1 in fine fashion. Admittedly Murray was a little rattled by the French crowd but that’s all part of the fun in Bercy.
It’s something Taylor Fritz is going to have to accept as he plays the part of potential Parisian party-pooper. Murray had done such a good job of breaking down the seemingly indestructible game of Simon throughout his career but the crowd broke the Scot’s spirit. Fritz shouldn’t have as much trouble hitting through Simon, even in slower conditions. The Frenchman might come out inspired but winning just seems a step too far… Right?
Prediction: Fritz in 3
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Dan Evans
Head-to-head: 3-0 Tsitsipas
Three meetings between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Dan Evans, three matches won for Tsitsipas. But not just that – only 12 games won in those three meetings for Evans. The latter two meetings were on clay however and the first was two years ago. The way Evans has been playing recently would suggest we won’t see another completely one-sided affair. At his blistering best, he can hurt Tsitsipas with his slice, net play and great running forehand (just ask Felix Auger-Aliassime, who Evans came close to defeating last week).
Tsitsipas is in a bit of an odd spot in his season but he is generally taking care of business against lower-ranked opponents, able to dictate play with his forehand from seemingly any position at the back of the court. We’re still going to back him given it’s generally players with better backhands that he’s struggling against on hard-courts but we’re expecting something far closer than their previous meetings.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 3
Daniil Medvedev vs Alex De Minaur
Head-to-head: 4-0 Medvedev
Alex De Minaur has been having a great year. Though he’s 10 places off his career-high ranking of #15, it’s difficult to remember him having played better tennis. He’s won more matches than he has in any season, unsurprising given his movement and ability to redirect pace is right up there with the best on tour.
Unfortunately for De Minaur, Daniil Medvedev is a bit of a bogey match-up. De Minaur is a player that likes pace on the ball and Medvedev is not a player that plays with pace. He is more than happy to trade cross-court until his opponent loses patience. That’s how this match-up has played out four times before and, regardless of how well De Minaur has been playing recently, on a slow hard-court, we’ve got to back Medvedev in meeting number five.
Prediction: Medvedev in 2
Main Photo from Getty.
