ATP Vienna Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev vs Denis Shapovalov

Head-to-head: Medvedev 3-2 Shapovalov

Medvedev certainly has the edge in recent meetings, winning their last three matchups and both times they have played since 2021. In their one prior meeting this year, Medvedev won in straight sets on the hard court in Cincinnati. Shapovalov has struggled with inconsistency, which is a key reason why he has only won one title in his career. On his day, his massive lefty forehand can trouble even players like Medvedev, but he can be error prone and let matches get away from him.

He has also had trouble on big stages, with just a 1-4 record in finals in his career including 1-3 on hard courts. Medvedev recently snapped a streak of five final losses in a row with his title in Los Cabos. However, he did play well in those finals including his Australian Open loss to Nadal, while Shapovalov has one just one set in his last four finals. Medvedev comes in with the edge in recent form. He took a few weeks off after an odd retirement in Nur-Sultan against Djokovic but has come out playing his best tennis in Vienna. He has won all eight sets he has played, and has not played a set closer than 6-4. Medvedev has served incredibly and faced just one break point all tournament which he saved.

Shapovalov comes in serving well, winning his last two matches without being broken and losing serve twice all tournament. He has had some more nervy service games that he was able to squeeze through. Medvedev looks sharper and has had more convincing wins against stronger competition. Shapovalov will have to rely on a big serve and be aggressive in a tiebreaker to have a chance. Medvedev will throw off Shapovalov’s big groundstrokes with his unconventional play, and his shot placement on a hard court will simply be too much for the Canadian to overcome. It will be fairly close but the match will go Medvedev’s way.

Prediction: Medvedev in 2