Round 2 of the Erste Bank Open keeps rolling on Day 4, with a draw that includes a matchup between recent #1 Daniil Medvedev and home crowd favorite and former champion Dominic Thiem. Can anyone get past the big names that loom large in the draw? We make the calls below, including Jannik Sinner vs Francisco Cerundolo. We also have predictions for matches featuring Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Borna Coric.
ATP Vienna Day 4 Predictions
Cameron Norrie vs Marcos Giron
Head-to-head: 1-0 Norrie
Norrie is nearing 50 wins on the season, and has two titles including one on hard court, but he hasn’t been great for the last six weeks. Needing three sets to dispatch a Lucky Loser in Round 1 here in Vienna isn’t inspiring either, but that’s all the hope I can give to Marcos Giron. The American, despite sitting at a decent #58 at the moment, is only 17-27 on the year, including a sub-.500 win percentage on hard courts. Norrie should take this, but his level isn’t inspiring me to call it in straight sets.
Prediction: Norrie in 3
Jannik Sinner vs Francisco Cerundolo
Head-to-head: 2-1 Sinner
Cerundolo has played badly the last few months, while somehow maintaining his ranking. Sinner has been robotic as usual, with his greatest challenge being his own health, as he has withdrawn four times this year, including a few weeks ago in Sofia. He has just returned to court, and saw off Cristian Garin in straight sets, who—like Cerundolo—greatly prefers clay. Cerundolo has, in fact, less than 20 matches experience at the ATP level on hard court, while Sinner is 27-8 on hard just this year. The career win percentage difference on hard is a whopping 32 points. The Italian should cruise if he’s healthy, and should be looking to get it done quickly in order to conserve energy for a run at the title.
Prediction: Sinner in 2
Daniil Medvedev vs Dominic Thiem
Head-to-head: 3-2 Thiem
Thiem’s comeback continues, as he moved past a tough Tommy Paul in Round 1, but his road immediately gets much steeper. Medvedev has not looked as sharp this year as his last couple years, but he is still a top 5 player on his favorite surface. All of the H2Hs were before Thiem’s injury, and while the Austrian’s comeback has picked up steam considerably in the second half of the year (including a recent win over Hubert Hurkacz in Antwerp), Medvedev should still be heavily favored. The Russian’s recent loss to the other former top player who has yet to reclaim his form—Stan Wawrinka—does loom in the background, though.
Prediction: Medvedev in 2