After the first two rounds at the WTA 1000 in Guadalajara, three spots at the WTA Finals in Fort Worth remain available with seven players still in with a chance of securing their place in Texas. Let’s have a look at who’s qualified, who has been eliminated, and who remains in the running.
WTA Finals Qualification
Who Has Qualified?
With a win over qualifier Elisabetta Cocciaretto, 18-year-old Coco Gauff qualified for the singles as well as the doubles in Fort Worth. Gauff is the second American to secure a spot after her doubles partner Jessica Pegula with Madison Keys and Danielle Collins still in play. The American also becomes the youngest player to compete at the WTA Finals since Maria Sharapova in 2005, the last edition held on American soil. Gauff’s ranking skyrocketed after her French Open final run with the US Open quarterfinal also adding a sizeable chunk. Those two results account for more than half of Gauff’s ranking points.
With the loss of Aryna Sabalenka in the Round of 32, Caroline Garcia also secured her spot in Fort Worth. It will be Garcia’s second appearance at the WTA Finals after 2017, when the Frenchwoman came back from a set down against Elina Svitolina and Caroline Wozniacki to qualify for the semifinals after an initial loss to Simona Halep. Garcia started the season at #74 in the rankings and did not look up to much in the first half of the season with just one WTA semifinal before June.
The 29-year-old stepped into the next gear in the summer, winning a title on all three surfaces. Garcia won Bad Homburg before reaching the second week of Wimbledon (which did not contribute to her ranking) before defeating Iga Swiatek en route to a title in Warsaw. The Frenchwoman’s game went to the next level as she won Cincinnati as a qualifier before reaching the semifinals of the US Open. Garcia took a couple of first-round losses after that but got the second-round win over Rebecca Marino in a third-set tiebreak to put herself in a position to clinch the WTA Finals berth.
Who Has Been Eliminated?
With the top eight seeds coming into the draw in the second round, we had a number of players eliminated from contention. The top seed in Guadalajara, Paula Badosa, retired after one set in her match against Victoria Azarenka and will not be able to defend her semifinal from the WTA Finals. Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina, who would be #3 in the Race had points been awarded at the slam, was eliminated by the current Race #3 Jessica Pegula in a third-set tiebreak.
Belinda Bencic, who had recently employed Dmitry Tursunov as her new coach, will also have to wait to make her second appearance at the WTA Finals. The 25-year-old was defeated by Sloane Stephens in straight sets. Despite earning a win over second seed Aryna Sabalenka, Ludmilla Samsonova was eliminated from contention due to other results not going her way with Veronika Kudermetova’s win over Donna Vekic being the final blow.
Who Can Still Qualify?
As things stand, Aryna Sabalenka sits at #6 in the Race, but her fate is now entirely in the hands of her competitors. The Belarusian will have to hope her 2970 points will be enough to secure her place and it likely will be due to the concentration of four remaining competitors in the same quarter. Unless Madison Keys goes on to win the event, Sabalenka should be in Fort Worth, though possibly as an eighth seed.
Sabalenka will likely be surpassed by #7 Daria Kasatkina, who needs just one more win to get sixth spot and secure a place in Fort Worth. The Russian faces Anna Kalinskaya, who she has not dropped a set against in their previous three meetings.
Veronika Kudermetova is sitting in the much-desired eighth spot as things stand but now is faced with a big challenge in the shape of Jelena Ostapenko, who has an outside chance of qualifying herself. The Russian won just four games in her previous match with Ostapenko in the Dubai final and if she loses here, she could be surpassed if Maria Sakkari wins her next match, Madison Keys or Danielle Collins reach the final, or Ostapenko goes on to win the event.
As mentioned, Maria Sakkari could take the eighth spot if she defeats Danielle Collins and Kudermetova loses to Ostapenko. If both Sakkari and Kudermetova win, they would meet in a face-off for the eighth seed with only Madison Keys able to spoil the party with a title run.
Keys has the advantage of being the only player left in the running in the top half though there are plenty of perilous players left in her path as she faces Victoria Azarenka and then likely Coco Gauff. The American would need to win the title to guarantee her spot in Fort Worth but could get through with just the final.
Collins faces off with Maria Sakkari and could eliminate the Greek if she defeats her. The American would also clinch her place with a title in Guadalajara and could only squeak by with a final if Ostapenko beats Kudermetova and Keys does not reach the final. Ostapenko, in 18th place in the Live Race, has only the slimmest of chances. The Latvian must beat Kudermetova and go on to win the title while hoping Madison Keys does not reach come through the other side of the draw to reach the final.
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