Round 2 of the ATP Firenze Open in Open brings in the favorites, with Felix Auger-Aliassime and Matteo Berrettini sitting strongly at the top of the draw and coming off their byes. Can anyone break through the powerful Italian Berrettini on home soil? The task is tall, and we make our calls below, including Lorenzo Musetti vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles
ATP Florence Day 4 Predictions
Mackenzie McDonald vs Francesco Passaro
Head-to-head: first meeting
McDonald is looking good after coming through a tough first-round test in Jenson Brooksby. He gets Passaro as a cool down if he can keep his head, as the Italian has played only a single match on hard court at the ATP and Challenger levels combined. Passaro was fortunate enough to have drawn a Lucky Loser in Round 1, and although he is rising and is near his career high, he is a clay courter. McDonald should be able to use his experience to keep his opponent on his back foot, especially given that he would have a very winnable match in the next round (the winner of Musetti vs Zapata Miralles). McDonald should smell the semifinals and play smart.
Prediction: McDonald in 2
Brandon Nakashima vs Altug Celikbilek
Head-to-head: first meeting
Nakashima continues to develop well and has hit his career high of #46 after taking his first title, albeit in a fairly easy draw in San Diego. But the win will surely give him confidence moving forward, and he is on his favorite surface here in Florence against the inexperienced Celikbilek, who has descended outside the top 200 after hitting a career-high early this year. Nakashima should cruise to Round 3, and I would expect to see him both take control of rallies and generate unforced errors from the Turk.
Prediction: Nakashima in 2
Lorenzo Musetti vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles
Head-to-head: first meeting
Musetti’s very high ranking of #28 represents a lot of success on clay, but hard court wins have been tougher to come by, and he hasn’t played very well since his incredible run to a title at Hamburg. However, he faces a player in Zapata Miralles who has fewer hard court matches at the ATP level in his career than Musetti has just this year. And that might have led to an easy pick of the Italian in two, if not for the Spaniard having just beaten a player in Lorenzo Sonego that I would take over Musetti on hard courts (and in straight sets, no less). So it’s a little complicated, but Musetti should be able to get it done.
Prediction: Musetti in 3
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Oscar Otte
Head-to-head: first meeting
By ranking Auger-Aliassime is heavily favored, and nothing changes when you take a deeper look into the matchup. Otte is not very experienced at the ATP level, and has just six wins (and twice as many losses) on hard court this year. Auger-Aliassime has had mixed results recently, but that includes a bunch of matches against top players, including a win against Novak Djokovic at the Laver Cup. He will surely be looking to start strong after a quick exit in Astana, and Otte’s heavy hitting should be returned in kind by the even-more-powerful Canadian.
Prediction: Auger-Aliassime in 2
Main Photo from Getty.
