The ATP returns to Florence after 25 years, and the Italian presence is strong in the Firenze Open draw, led by one of the top favorites in Matteo Berrettini. Felix Auger-Aliassime also looms as the other prime contender, though Lorenzo Musetti should not be overlooked, and Lorenzo Sonego may make some noise with Italian wind gusting in his sails. Each player will surely be looking to close out the season with a good showing, but can the favorites hold out against challengers like Maxime Cressy and the tricky David Goffin? We make the calls below, including Corentin Moutet vs Flavio Cobolli.
ATP Firenze Open Day 1 Predictions
Aslan Karatsev vs Tallon Griekspoor
Head-to-head: Griekspoor 1-0
This is an ugly match between two struggling players. Karatsev started the season with a title and six wins in a row to reach his career high of #14, only to go 9-24 since and drop to #39. One of those losses was to Griekspoor on hard, and these things might give the Dutchman the edge, but he himself has been only a little better. Hard court is, in fact, his worst surface. But it’s nearly impossible to pick Karatsev at this point, and I would expect Griekspoor to edge him out.
Prediction: Griekspoor in 3
Daniel Elahi Galan vs Roberto Carballes Baena
Head-to-head: Galan 1-0
Daniel Galan is playing the best tennis of his career recently, having scored his best win at the US Open against world #5 Stefanos Tsitsipas, and having reached his career high of #59 last month. The rest of his season has not been inspiring, although solid for a player making a push up into the ATP tour. Carballes Baena, on the other, has struggled greatly, to the tune of 8-16 on the year, with just one win on hard court. The Spaniard is a clay court specialist of the Challenger variety, and although Galan also prefers clay, I would expect him to continue his good form and pull one out here.
Prediction: Galan in 3
Giulio Zeppieri vs Altug Celikbilek
Head-to-head: first meeting
Zeppieri has never played a hard court match at the ATP level, and has only 15 matches on the surfaces at all levels (although he’s only 20). Celikbilek is by no means a specialist, but he prefers hard and has a good win percentage and three titles at the Challenger level. His recent matches have not been inspiring, however. If not for that this might be the rare match that could be called in two in favor of a player ranked 70 places lower. The Turk should take it, though a rowdy Italian crowd might boost Zeppieri to an upset.
Prediction: Celikbilek in 3
Corentin Moutet vs Flavio Cobolli
Head-to-head: first meeting
Moutet will be attempting to bounce back from some bad publicity in his last match, after a postgame scuffle with Andreev that caught some attention and some fines. But he’s playing well enough this year relative to a Challenger level opponent who prefers clay, and who is making his first-ever ATP start on hard courts. The Frenchman is near his career high of #64, attained last month. He should cruise against an inexperienced opponent, though an unfriendly atmosphere could get in the way.
Prediction: Moutet in 2
J.J. Wolf vs Francesco Maestrelli
Head-to-head: first meeting
Maestrelli is a rising young Italian who has entered on a wild card but who may very well deserve to be here. He has risen almost 600 places this year, and will make his first ATP start against Wolf in front of a home crowd. Naturally, most of the competition he has faced has been lower-level, but he does have a recent win over Constant Lestienne, who was ranked exactly where Wolf is ranked now, at #75.
Wolf is a good hard court player, though, and can reach a very high level, as judged by wins these last couple months over Roberto Bautista Agut and Denis Shapovalov. The question is consistency, and whether the home crowd will add to the momentum that Maestrelli has had this year. I feel like I would be slighting Wolf not to call this in two, but I do so with a little trepidation.
Prediction: Wolf in 2
Main Photo from Getty.
