After two stunning semifinals and a week of all-around high-quality tennis, the inaugural ATP Astana Open has unquestionably been a success and the entertainment should continue in Sunday’s showpiece final. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our prediction for the final, but will it be Novak Djokovic or Stefanos Tsitsipas who lifts the title?
ATP Astana Final Prediction
Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Head-to-head: Djokovic 7-2 Tsitsipas
Djokovic dropped his first set since Wimbledon in the semifinal against Daniil Medvedev. The Serb was on a 17-set win streak before dropping the first set 6-4, though he came back with a very strong performance to take the second 8-6 in the tiebreak. Medvedev was then forced to retire with an injury, which came as quite a surprise to not just the watching fans but also to Djokovic himself. Djokovic had secured his place in the last four with dominant wins over Cristian Garin, Botic van de Zandschulp and Karen Khachanov.
With his ranking dropping to #7 after not playing Australian Open and US Open with no points awarded at Wimbledon, Djokovic has to rebuild his ranking if he wants to make a push to return to the #1 spot, although in the short term his focus appears to be on qualification for Turin. Tsitsipas also had to come back from a set down in his semifinal match, beating another Russian in Andrey Rublev. It was also the Greek’s first time dropping a set this week after wins over Mikhail Kukushkin, Luca Nardi, and Hubert Hurkacz.
It has been an interesting season for the 24-year-old, winning just two titles in Monte Carlo and Mallorca but getting deep runs quite regularly. Outside of his titles, Tsitsipas also reached finals in Rotterdam, Rome, and Cincinnati as well as an Australian Open semifinal. This will be the tenth meeting between Djokovic and Tsitsipas with the Serb winning seven of their previous nine meetings. Tsitsipas got off to a strong start in this head-to-head, winning two of their first three meetings at Toronto 2018 and Shanghai 2019. Djokovic has won the next six meetings, including in finals of Rome in 2022, French Open in 2021, and Dubai in 2020.
The Greek did come close though, going a set up on Djokovic in Rome 2021 and two sets up in the 2021 French Open final. In their only previous meeting on indoor hard, the former #1 dominated, dropping just three games in their Paris-Bercy match in 2019. With the fight that he showed against Medvedev, it is clear just how much Djokovic wants this title. His level has been high throughout the week and he should be able to expose Tsitsipas’ backhand on this faster surface.
Prediction: Djokovic in 2
Main photo:
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