The Astana quarterfinal matches are loaded with top talent, including recent #1s Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev. Adrian Mannarino looks like an outlier in this group of eight, but he did just move past Carlos Alcaraz’s victor in David Goffin. Almost anyone else winning the title would be unsurprising, but can Mannarino make an unlikely bid for the title? We make the calls.
ATP Astana Quarterfinal Predictions
Andrey Rublev vs Adrian Mannarino
Head-to-head: 1-1
Mannarino—invariably described as “the tricky Frenchman”—is good for an upset every now and then, but he has a very low win percentage against the top 10. He had a fortunate draw here in Astana that gave him two former top players who have not yet been able to return fully from injuries, though David Goffin had just knocked off Carlos Alcaraz. Rublev had a similar warmup in the first two rounds, being given two qualifiers, but hasn’t played otherwise since the US Open. The H2H is split, and both matches were played on hard court in Moscow, with Mannarino upsetting the Russian on home turf just last year. I think Rublev will take it, but Mannarino can’t be overlooked.
Prediction: Rublev in 3
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Hubert Hurkacz
Head-to-head: Tsitsipas 6-2
Tsitsipas is trying to get back on track after two crushing defeats in a row, the first a loss to the surging but low-ranked Borna Coric in the finals of Cincinnati, followed immediately by a terrible first round loss in the US Open to Daniel Galan. His few results since have been mixed, but 2022 has otherwise been brilliant for the Greek, and a victory here will tie him with Carlos Alcaraz for most wins on the season with 52. Hurkacz has not looked great these last two months since a run to the finals in Montreal, and he is behind in the H2H. However, the hard court record for these two this year is almost identical, and this should be a good match.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 3
Daniil Medvedev vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Head-to-head: Bautista Agut 4-1
Medvedev was starting to look vulnerable this last month or so, but he has gotten back on track with a couple decent wins against Emil Ruusuvuori and Albert Ramos-Vinolas. He faces a player in Bautista Agut who has given him trouble in the past, and strangely he has yet to overcome the Spaniard in three tries on hard courts. Bautista Agut was looking no better than mediocre for the last several months, but poked his head well above water with a first round win over Felix Auger-Aliassime. On the season as a whole and on hard courts, both players’ records are very similar, with a slight edge to Medvedev. I think this will be where the Russian breaks the Spaniard’s hard court spell, but I think he may have a lot of trouble in doing so.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Novak Djokovic vs Karen Khachanov
Head-to-head: Djokovic 6-1
Khachanov has continued his good form from the US Open, not having suffered from taking a few weeks off, but he can’t be too happy about his draw here in Astana. While Rublev and Mannarino are coming through a menagerie of qualifiers, lucky losers, and wild cards, Khachanov draws Maxime Cressy, Marin Cilic, and now Novak Djokovic. But if the Russian is going to move past the super Serb, this is the kind of form to be in. Djokovic, for his part, is looking unbeatable, having dropped just six games in the first two rounds. He doesn’t appear to be suffering from playing part time, and he leads the hard court H2H 3-1. I think he’ll take it, but Khachanov’s form warrants a set.
Prediction: Djokovic in 3
Main Photo from Getty.
