Just two men are still standing at the US Open after a thrilling fortnight of tennis. For both Casper Ruud and Carlos Alcaraz, this is a chance to claim not only their first Grand Slam title but also to ascend to the world #1 ranking. As always, we here at LWOT are offering our predictions for the final, but who will come out on top in New York?
US Open Final Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud
Jim: This has the makings of an entertaining final. Alcaraz will be the favourite for most, but Ruud should not be underestimated. He has arguably played the better tennis so far in New York and, crucially, he has spent a lot less time on court than the Spaniard who has had to come through back-to-back five-setters against Jannik Sinner and Frances Tiafoe. In what is sure to be another physically testing encounter, the fresher Ruud might just have a decisive edge.
Prediction: Ruud in 5
Jack: Is there a breaking point for Alcaraz? The Spaniard has now played three five-set matches on the bounce – going into the biggest match of his career, questions of fatigue, both mental and physical, would ordinarily come into play. He’s played seven matches this year that have gone over the three hour mark however and he’s won the following match on all six occasions. The seventh takes place tomorrow.
Ruud really is striking ball heavily so he can’t be counted out completely. When he really got going against Karen Khachanov, he was incredibly difficult to keep up with, the weight of his forehand a sure-fire weapon against all that stood against him this fortnight. Alcaraz is a different beast however and leaving that deuce court open won’t go unpunished.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Shane: Alcaraz holds a 2-0 head-to-head record over Ruud including a win in the Miami Masters final earlier this year. The young Spaniard rode a 71% first-serve percentage and 32 winners to that victory. Many are talking about fatigue playing a factor in this one for Alcaraz. He has spent 13 hours and 36 minutes on-court during his last three matches compared to the 9 hours and 3 minutes of the Norwegian. But Alcaraz has yet to show fatigue at the US Open and I doubt it will come into play during this final.
The difference in this battle for final Slam of the season will be Alcaraz’s comfort at the net. Ruud is one of the most consistent players on tour and will not give up many unforced errors. Alcaraz will have to stay on the offensive during this match and that starts with his play at the net. He has shown incredibly soft hands and touch. I expect Alcaraz to use a variety of offensive tactics to try and throw off the Norwegian, including quick advances to the forecourt set up by one of the best drop shots on tour. I will back Alcaraz to win his first Grand Slam in four-sets.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Jakub: A battle to clinch their first Slam and to become the new world #1 between two rising stars of the sport, what more could you want? Alcaraz comes in as a favorite despite being put through wringer physically, beating all of Marin Cilic, Jannik Sinner and Frances Tiafoe 6-3 in the fifth in his last three matches. Ruud has been solid throughout the week, particularly impressive in his straight-set dismissal of Matteo Berrettini and following it up with a win over Karen Khachanov.
The Spaniard has won their previous two meetings in straight sets, winning last year in the quarterfinals in Marbella as well as in the Miami final earlier in the season, where the two also faced off for the biggest title of their careers so far. Alcaraz is the slight favourite for me but Ruud’s easier road could pay off in the final.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Damian: What a way to wrap up the tournament – a winner takes all for the World No. 1 spot. While Carlos Alcaraz has played three consecutive five-setters to get here, the Spaniard is a physical freak who can recover incredibly well (and that’s not only because of his age). Casper Ruud has done a fantastic job raising his hard-court game and the forehand is such a versatile weapon that transcends surfaces now. However, Alcaraz is simply on another level in terms of his talent and potential. As long as he’s in good physical shape and won’t be overwhelmed by the occasion, he should be taking this one home.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
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