Both US Open men’s semifinal matches will be contested on Friday in Flushing Meadows. Will Spanish phenom Carlos Alcaraz continue to amaze the crowds? Will American Frances Tiafoe continue his historic march onwards? And who will reach the final from the other side of the draw? As always, our writers will share their thoughts on both matches with you. Predicting these matches are Jack Edward, Damian Kust, Jakub Bobro, and Johnny Connell. Who do you think will win?
US Open Men’s Semifinal Predictions
Karen Khachanov vs Casper Ruud
Jack:
This should be a closer affair than some might expect. Casper Ruud has the advantage from the baseline, though honestly, the way Karen Khachanov’s been striking the ball, it really is only a slight advantage.
Perhaps more importantly, Khachanov has had the advantage on serve this tournament. Akin to his run at the Paris Masters, Khachanov is serving with aplomb, slightly more equipped than Ruud to take advantage of the quick conditions.
I don’t see Ruud getting himself into rallies frequently enough to make him the favorite. This is Khachanov’s time to shine.
Prediction: Khachanov in 5
Damian:
Karen Khachanov had a rather unimpressive 2022 campaign up until the US Open, but it has to be said that the Russian has really caught fire in New York. He’s a better hard court player than Casper Ruud, who hasn’t exactly faced the highest quality of opposition so far. With this being such an enormous chance for both players, the quality could dip if we get a tight finish and it’s unclear who would stay stronger mentally in such case.
Prediction: Khachanov in 5
Jakub:
After looking a bit unconvincing in the first three rounds, Khachanov has taken his game to the next level, winning back-to-back five-set battles against Pablo Carreno Busta and Nick Kyrgios. Ruud is in the running to become the new World No. 1 despite his biggest title being an ATP 250. The Norwegian overcame Tommy Paul in five sets but looked even more impressive against Matteo Berrettini, dismissing the Italian in straights. On current form, expect Ruud to win again.
Prediction: Ruud in 4
Johnny:
An unexpected semifinal matchup, and a huge opportunity for both men. Karen Khachanov caused a major upset in the quarterfinals when he outlasted Nick Kyrgios in five sets to reach his first Grand Slam semifinal. Khachanov served incredibly well against Kyrgios and made the most of the Australian’s fragilities on the day.
Meanwhile, Casper Ruud motored past Matteo Berrettini in straight sets in the quarterfinals and heads into this match with a heap of momentum on his side. Khachanov played incredible against Kyrgios, but I don’t think he will replicate that level here. Ruud is going to bring it. I suspect Ruud will have the edge from the baseline and should get enough looks to take advantage of that. Ruud has been in this situation before, that also helps his cause.
Prediction: Ruud in 4
Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe
Jack:
There’s no doubt who goes into this match as the favorite. It makes sense to consider fatigue a factor, though, as Carlos Alcaraz broke a litany of records in the early hours of Thursday morning in his win over Jannik Sinner. Nothing about this kid makes sense though–you can’t help feeling as though Alcaraz couldn’t be better prepared to bounce back from a match like that, his super-soldier-like demeanour blowing human expectations out of the water.
Assuming Alcaraz is still playing close to around 80% of his best, Frances Tiafoe will still have enough in the tank on serve to keep things very competitive. Despite the kick he gets on it though, a few second-serves here or there could be costly as Alcaraz will likely punish this shot with flatter returns than Rafael Nadal in the fourth-round. Match-up and fatigue considered, Alcaraz should be too much for Tiafoe.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Damian:
Carlos Alcaraz is coming off a marathon win over Jannik Sinner, but the youngster is among the fittest players on the planet and should be able to recover physically. Frances Tiafoe playing the best tournament of his life won’t be easy to deal with, especially with all the support of the home crowd. Alcaraz has more upside, though, and his mental strength is of absolutely elite quality, which he has proven again by saving a match point and coming out on top against Sinner. It’s a phenomenal chance for either player, but Alcaraz should be the one reaching what will be the first of his many Grand Slam finals.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Jakub:
Alcaraz, now qualified for the ATP Finals after his five-set battle against Jannik Sinner, will be looking for the 50th win of his season. The 19-year-old Spaniard could also become the new World No. 1 if he takes the title. Tiafoe’s run has come somewhat out of nowhere after a mediocre lead-up but the 24-year-old has been undeniable in New York. The American has earned wins over Diego Schwartzman, Rafael Nadal, and Andrey Rublev all while dropping just one set. Tiafoe has won their previous meeting and he could very well win again.
Prediction: Tiafoe in 5
Johnny:
Carlos Alcaraz secured the most extraordinary victory imaginable in the quarterfinals. A physically and mentally draining win over Jannik Sinner in a match lasting over five hours. There are few players that could rebound from a win like that and keep their physicality in the next round, I think Alcaraz is one of them. A day off should give Alcaraz enough time to recover.
The Spaniard will face an opponent that is on a roll. Frances Tiafoe is playing the tennis of his life and will be very fresh heading into this match having beaten Andrey Rublev in straight sets in the previous round. Tiafoe has the edge when it comes to having an easier preparation, but I think Alcaraz is the better player and will find a way to get through this one.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Main Photo from Getty.
