The US Open women’s semifinal matches are set, and we are in for a blockbuster evening in New York on on Thursday. In one semifinal, World #1 Iga Swiatek will take on Aryna Sabalenka, who was World #2 herself until very recently. In the other semifinal, Ons Jabeur (who will rise to World #2 or #3 herself next week) tries to stop the freight train that is Caroline Garcia. As always, we here at LWOT share our thoughts on the matches with you. Predicting these matches are Jim Smith, Ryan Schick, Johnny Connell, Jakub Bobro, and Jack Edward.
US Open Women’s Semifinal Predictions
Caroline Garcia vs Ons Jabeur
Jim:
Garcia has been playing simply exceptional tennis since arriving in Cincinnati. Jabeur is probably the better player, but there is very little in it and Garcia is the woman in form. Expect an entertaining all-court battle, with both women at their best when playing front foot attacking tennis and getting to the net regularly. Garcia, however, looks little short of unstoppable.
Prediction: Garcia in 3
Jack:
Ons Jabeur is a great player. She’s more of a natural surface player but she has the mentality of a warrior and the return game to scrap her way from any deficit.
Caroline Garcia has been absolutely jaw-dropping, however. Phenomenal. Every superlative in the book. Like she was against Rybakina at Wimbledon, Jabeur will be vulnerable against somebody seeing the ball like a football. This is the Frenchwoman’s time.
Prediction: Garcia in 2
Ryan:
Jabeur has been the best player in the world not named Iga Swiatek this summer. Garcia has had a great week but is in unchartered territory with her first Major semi. Jabeur has the experience and if Garcia shows any nerves, Jabeur’s consistent baseline game is prime to take advantage of it. Jabeur won both their prior meetings and will win this one easily to make her second straight Slam final.
Prediction: Jabeur in 2
Johnny:
Caroline Garcia is the hottest player on tour right now. Garcia has stormed through the draw without dropping a set. The Frenchwoman has conceded an average of 2.7 games per set and came through her toughest test quite convincingly with a 6-3 6-4 quarterfinal win over Coco Gauff. Ons Jabeur is playing some fine tennis of her own; the fifth seed is one win away from back-to-back Major finals, which would be an incredible achievement given where she has come from.
It’s fair to say that Garcia is playing at a higher level right now, but this will be her first Major semifinal. It will be interesting to see if she blinks with the title within touching distance. Jabeur has a tendency to go missing in the biggest matches, so it will come down to who manages the situation better. Garcia is locked in right now. I can’t pick against the Frenchwoman; she’s simply on fire and has the firepower to not allow Jabeur to play her game.
Prediction: Garcia in 2
Jakub:
Garcia looks close to inevitable in New York this year. The Frenchwoman has now won 13 straight matches, coming in off of a title run in Cincinnati, and has not dropped more than four games in a set on her run here with wins over the likes of Bianca Andreescu and Coco Gauff.
Jabeur’s variety and intelligent tennis might have the best shot at dismantling Garcia though, getting tough straight-set wins over Veronika Kudermetova and Ajla Tomljanovic. Jabeur has won their previous two meetings, though they do not seem particularly relevant as Garcia’s level is higher than at any point in the past four years. It will be a very interesting battle and I back Garcia to come out on top here.
Prediction: Garcia in 3
Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka
Jim:
Swiatek may have stumbled a little in recent weeks, but she is the leading light on the WTA Tour for a reason. The Pole can do real damage with both her forehand and backhand, and she is one of the best movers in the women’s game. Sabalenka has the power to hit through Swiatek–she is one of the few players that does–but perfection is not easy to achieve. Especially in such pressurised circumstances.
Prediction: Swiatek in 3
Ryan:
Ryan Schick
Swiatek is no doubt the best player in the world. Sabalenka is a tricky matchup and on her day can beat Swiatek. However, she is very error-prone and despite her skill has never made a major final for that reason. Swiatek hasn’t been her best but her skills and consistency will be just what she needs to forces Sabalenka into key errors and make the final.
Prediction: Swiatek in 3
Johnny:
Iga Swiatek showed better signs in a hard-fought 6-3 7-6 quarterfinal win over Jessica Pegula, a tough opponent to overcome. The Pole will be a deserving favourite heading into her semifinal with Aryna Sabalenka, an opponent she has thrashed in all three of their previous meetings this year. Swiatek has dropped an average of two games per set against Sabalenka in their three matches this year, not dropping more than three games in a single set.
Sabalenka remains a dangerous opponent, her best can beat anyone on any given day. Swiatek is definitely the more consistent of the two, and a proven champion. I trust the Pole to deliver under pressure, I don’t trust Sabalenka at all.
Prediction: Swiatek in 2
Jakub:
My winner pick from before the tournament, Aryna Sabalenka, makes her way to the US Open semifinals again. The Belarusian will be looking to exorcise the demons of last year’s loss to Leylah Fernandez and has looked very solid coming in, earning strong wins over Danielle Collins and Karolina Pliskova.
Swiatek overcame the challenge of a big hitter in the fourth round, coming back from a set down against Jule Niemeier before beating Jessica Pegula. The two have faced off four times previously, all in the past year. Sabalenka won their first meeting at the WTA Finals in Guadalajara last season but Swiatek has dominated her this year, winning 6-2 6-3, 6-2 6-2, and 6-2 6-1 in Doha, Stuttgart and Rome, respectively. However, with how much trouble Niemeier caused the No. 1 in the first two sets on this fast surface, I actually see Sabalenka breaking through this trend and getting the win here.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3
Jack:
Aryna Sabalenka is having her best tournament of the season. Sabalenka on a tear is not a player to be counted out against nearly anybody.
Swiatek isn’t nearly anybody, though, of course. Sabalenka may have notched a win over her in Guadalajara but without the high altitude assisting her serve and weakening Swiatek’s topspin, the consistent aggression of the Pole is so tough for her to deal with. Great run of form but the world #1 rolls.
Prediction: Swiatek in 2
Main Photo from Getty.
