Wednesday at the US Open will see the final two women’s quarterfinal matches. We are guaranteed a first-time US Open champion, but players need to reach the semifinals first. As always, our writers share their thoughts on all the matches with you. Predicting these matches are Shane Black, Jakub Bobro, Damian Kust, Jack Edward, and Jim Smith. Who do you think will win?
US Open Women’s Quarterfinal Predictions
Karolina Pliskova vs Aryna Sabalenka
Shane:
Veteran Karolina Pliskova and 24-year-old Aryna Sabalenka are set to square off for the fifth time. Though their head-to-head is split at two, Pliskova has won the previous two meetings. Both players have had their inconsistencies in Queens but have rightfully earned their quarterfinal spot. Sabalenka has improved her serving woes, but I still struggle to trust her game in big moments.
Prediction: Pliskova in 3
Jakub:
A true shootout between two of the biggest hitters on the tour. After a crazy first week, Sabalenka got a very impressive win over Danielle Collins. Pliskova’s form must also be respected though, especially with her most recent wins over Belinda Bencic and Victoria Azarenka. It’s an incredibly tight call but I will lean towards Sabalenka here, though it is essentially a coin flip.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3
Damian:
Both women definitely took the scenic route to get here. Karolina Pliskova survived three deciding sets, while Aryna Sabalenka was 2-6 1-5 down to Kaia Kanepi and saved a match point with a net cord winner. This should be very tight and while the quality of her movement seems to vary from okay to tragic these days, the Czech can rely on her serve and on a good day, has more control and regulation in her baseline game.
Prediction: Pliskova in 3
Jack:
Coming back from the brink is just what the doctor ordered for Aryna Sabalenka. After surviving a 6-2 5-2 deficit against Kaia Kanepi and saving match points, the Belarusian has had a new lease of life. She smoked qualifier Clara Burel and defeated Danielle Collins at her own huge backhand game.
Not many would have picked her to get this far but, now she’s here, it’s difficult to count her out. Karolina Pliskova will bring a decent level into this match but a few first serves missed here and there could be key. It took an insanely high level from Pliskova to defeat Sabalenka in the Wimbledon semis last year–I’m not convinced she brings the same performance to the court against somebody that’s running on a second-wind.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3
Jim:
It feels somehow appropriate that this pair should meet here. Both have the talent to win at least one Major but both have so far not managed to do so despite seeming to be in prime position to do so more than once. There has also, fittingly, been nothing to split them so far in their head-to-head. It could go either way and will be decided by who executes better on the day, but Sabalenka should be the fresher and has cut a determined figure since her narrow second-round escape. She might just have the edge here.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3
Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula
Shane:
Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula are matching up for the third time this season, with the Pole having won both matchups in straight sets. That said, the #1 seed has shown more vulnerability over the past two months. Pegula should be able to use the home crowd to her advantage, but will the nerves of her first US Open quarterfinal affect her game? I expect Swiatek, who is more experienced in pressure moments, to outplay the American in big points.
Prediction: Swiatek in 3
Jakub:
Swiatek faced some adversity in her fourth round, coming back from a set down against the big hitter Jule Niemeier. Pegula has been solid throughout the season and this run as well but ultimately, the American does not possess the weapons to pull off the upset here. Unless it’s a nightmare performance from Swiatek, expect the Pole to get the win here.
Prediction: Swiatek in 2
Damian:
It’s a good matchup when Iga Swiatek is in form, which she already demonstrated by beating Jessica Pegula twice this year. The American won’t rush her as effectively as some big-hitting opponents do and generally doesn’t go above or below a certain level. The form’s gone though and Pegula will be hungry to get revenge. Swiatek needs to hope that her forehand will be much cleaner than in round four, which it should be as it will be granted a lot more baseline rhythm here.
Prediction: Swiatek in 3
Jack:
Iga Swiatek’s blip against Jule Niemeier was no blip at all. The German hits huge and flat, the kind of game that could rush Swiatek’s forehand in these fast conditions. Rest assured, the world #1’s ability to bounce back in that match is the takeaway, indicative of her finding her feet in New York.
Jessie Pegula won’t go down easy, the tennis she brings most often to the court steadily creeping up in years past to a higher and higher base level of aggression. She could even wrestle a set off of Swiatek if she can go into the Pole’s forehand with enough heat. Her redline just isn’t consistently high enough though and, in a battle of the forehands, Swiatek eventually wins every time.
Prediction: Swiatek in 3
Jim:
Pegula’s transformation into a force to be reckoned with at the Majors over the last two years has been nothing short of remarkable. This is her fourth quarterfinal in the last eight Grand Slams and her third this year alone. But it’s also telling that she has lost the previous three, including to Swiatek at the French Open earlier this year, a match in which the American won just five games. Pegula is an excellent player and this should be more competitive, but the Pole should have too much in the end.
Prediction: Swiatek in 3
Main Photo from Getty.
