The fourth round of the US Open wraps up on Day 8, with four women’s matches to determine the last four quarterfinalists. As always, our LWOT writers share their thoughts on the matches for you. Predicting today’s matches are Jakub Bobro, Damian Kust, and Johnny Connell. Who do you think will win?
US Open Day 8 Women’s Predictions
Jessica Pegula vs Petra Kvitova
Jakub:
Kvitova won an absolute classic in her last match, saving two match points and defeating Garbine Muguruza 12-10 in the third set tiebreak. Now she has to face the very consistent Pegula, who did drop a set to Yue Yuan in her last match though. It will be a tough turnaround physically for the Czech but I do see her as a slight favorite here, winning her previous two matches over Pegula in straight sets at Doha 2021 and US Open 2020.
Prediction: Kvitova in 2
Damian:
Petra Kvitova beat Jessica Pegula twice in 2020/2021, but the American is having the best season of her career right now. She’s sitting at No. 3 in the WTA Race and while she hasn’t done it through winning titles (only one final), she’s done it through going deep in almost every event played. The 28-year-old is capable of matching Kvitova’s pace from the ground and will force the veteran Czech to combine her high-risk style with decent consistency. It remains to be seen if the two-time Grand Slam champion delivers.
Prediction: Pegula in 3
Johnny:
Petra Kvitova survived an epic against Garbine Muguruza by the skin of her teeth in the previous round. It was a quality win for Kvitova, but I don’t think she will be consistent enough against Jessica Pegula. The American continues to be underrated, she is one of the most consistent players on tour, her base level beats almost anyone right now. The quicker conditions suit both players, Kvitova’s best is better, but Pegula is more likely to prevail in the end.
Prediction: Pegula in 3
Karolina Pliskova vs Victoria Azarenka
Jakub:
Azarenka has looked better with each match in New York, dropping just three games to Petra Martic last time out. It will be a very different challenge in Pliskova, though, with the Czech finally finding form on hard courts this season and coming back from a set down against Belinda Bencic in the third round. Both players are in vintage form so it should be an entertaining match-up, splitting their eight previous matches previously. Azarenka leads the head-to-head 2-1 on hard courts though Pliskova’s one win came on the faster of those hard courts. It’s a close call but I will go with Pliskova here.
Prediction: Pliskova in 3
Damian:
We revisit a rivalry that started all the way back in 2008. Victoria Azarenka leads the hard court head-to-head 2-1, but both women have come a long way since they last played on this surface four years ago (which doesn’t mean they’re stronger than back then). You never really know what to expect from Karolina Pliskova these days and Azarenka might just be that much more of a sure thing to perform, especially with her return game and the ability to work the ball around the court, keep the Czech moving.
Prediction: Azarenka in 3
Johnny:
Karolina Pliskova somehow came from a set and a break down to defeat Belinda Bencic in the previous round. Bencic let Pliskova off the hook. Victoria Azarenka won’t make the same mistake. I’ll always favor Azarenka in this matchup. Azarenka has one of the best returns of serve on tour, which negates Pliskova’s biggest weapon, and Azarenka should have the edge from the back of the court. Azarenka hasn’t been in the best form of late, but she is getting better and better and loves playing in New York.
Prediction: Azarenka in 2
Iga Swiatek vs Jule Niemeier
Jakub:
Despite disliking the balls used at the US Open, Swiatek has been making her way through the draw very well, not dropping more than four games in a set in wins over Jasmine Paolini, Sloane Stephens and Lauren Davis. Niemeier, through to the second week for her second Slam in a row, will be a different challenge as she possesses more power. The German has looked great in straight-set wins over Sofia Kenin, Yulia Putintseva and Qinwen Zheng. Swiatek might be in trouble at points in this match but ultimately I expect the World No. 1 to come out on top.
Prediction: Swiatek in 3
Damian:
Jule Niemeier didn’t get any points for her Wimbledon quarterfinal run, so she still finds herself outside the top 100. Not for long though and clearly her actual playing strength is better than that. Iga Swiatek has faced no issues so far, but this will be her first opponent who’s got a big game and is capable of rushing her on a faster surface. However, while Niemeier is powerful, she doesn’t take time away as effectively as someone like Ekaterina Alexandrova or Qinwen Zheng (Swiatek’s possible opponents in the last two rounds) would and she might leave her too much freedom on the court.
Prediction: Swiatek in 2
Johnny:
Iga Swiatek shouldn’t have many problems getting past Jule Niemeier. The German has already exceeded all expectations this week and simply doesn’t have the class to hang with the world number 1. Swiatek wasn’t at her best in the previous round and will no doubt be concentrating on raising her level for this clash, that spells danger for Niemeier.
Prediction: Swiatek in 2
Danielle Collins vs Aryna Sabalenka
Jakub:
Collins has been making her way through the tournament very well. It’s the first time she’s made it into the second week in New York and she is yet to drop a set with wins over the likes of Naomi Osaka and Alize Cornet. Sabalenka has had more of a wild run, coming back from 2-6 1-5 and saving match points against Kaia Kanepi before ripping through qualifier Clara Burel in the third round, allowing her only two games. The Belarusian has had the better of this match-up, winning all three of their previous meetings including two here at the US Open. Collins has been solid and may be given opportunities to get into the match if Sabalenka starts to make mistakes but the 24-year-old has to be the favorite for me.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
Damian:
Not many expected that these two seeds would get this far–Danielle Collins was given a nightmare opening draw against Naomi Osaka, while Aryna Sabalenka went down 3-6 1-5 to Kaia Kanepi, before producing a stunning comeback and saving a match point with a net cord winner. In this battle of hard-hitters, Collins can rely on her serve more and could actually be more dangerous once she’s locked in and every aspect of her game is clicking.
Prediction: Collins in 3
Johnny:
Danielle Collins is playing incredibly well. Collins has produced two of the best performances of the tournament thus far. A high quality straight set win over Naomi Osaka in the opening round and a 6-4 7-6 win over Alize Cornet in the third round where the American hit a whopping 53 winners. Aryna Sabalenka continues to be inconsistent, especially on serve. Sabalenka’s best is good, but I just can’t trust her right now. I do trust Collins. I’ll side with the American here despite Sabalenka’s H2H edge.
Prediction: Collins in 3
Main Photo from Getty.
