Daniil Medvedev and Nick Kyrgios are playing well enough that their matchup would be a worthy US Open final, instead it’s a 4th round matchup in New York with a lot at stake for both players. We have predictions for every round of 16 match at the US Open.
Daniil Medvedev vs Nick Kyrgios
Jakub Bobro: The definite blockbuster match-up of the day. Both players have showed great focus and very solid play, Medvedev yet to drop a set while Kyrgios lost one to Benjamin Bonzi. They’ve had very different fortunes in New York in the past, the top seed coming in as a defending champion and making it to the final four at least in his past three appearances while Kyrgios is in the fourth round of the US Open for the first time in his career, making his ninth appearance here. The Australian leads the head-to-head 3-1 but the two have split in their two meetings this season, Medvedev winning out in Australia while Kyrgios bested the World No. 1 in Canada. It is an incredibly even match but with the fast conditions and the big occasion of the Arthur Ashe Stadium night session, I am slightly leaning towards Kyrgios. Kyrgios in 5
Damian Kust: This shouldn’t be happening this early in the tournament, but here we are. Daniil Medvedev hasn’t had the most challenging draw so far, but he’s done well not to drop a set. His US Open records have also been phenomenal over the years. Nick Kyrgios is playing at an absurd level too and managed to take the Russian out in Montreal. However, over the longer format and in the tough weather conditions in New York, it’s Medvedev who should be the favorite. Medvedev in 5
Wesley Heilman: We just saw this matchup and it favored Kyrgios, as it has three out of the four times they’ve met. I haven’t seen anything to suggest it would change, although it’s hard not to favor Medvedev in just about any matchup. But Kyrgios looks motivated, and he’s not so deep in the tournament that I would begin to question his stamina or his resolve. I can’t imagine Medvedev was pleased to see Kyrgios as a fourth round possibility when he first looked at the draw. Kyrgios in 4
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Karen Khachanov
Jakub: Carreno Busta, a two-time semifinalist at the US Open, has dealt with a line-up of tricky opponents in the first three rounds, defeating Dominic Thiem, Alexander Bublik and Alex De Minaur all in four sets. Khachanov comes into the match-up in less impressive form, dropping sets to Denis Kudla and Thiago Monteiro before getting a retirement from Jack Draper. The Russian has had the edge in this match-up though, leading the overall head-to-head 5-4, 4-1 on hard courts as well as winning their last three matches. Despite that, I believe Carreno Busta can snap this streak and get his first hard-court win over Khachanov since 2017. Carreno Busta in 4
Damian: This has been a surprisingly frequent matchup as the two will take on each other for the ninth time. Karen Khachanov leads their head-to-head on hard courts 4-1 and there’s enough sample size to make this a pretty worthwhile stat. It makes a lot of sense as for all his consistency, Pablo Carreno Busta likes leading the rallies and controlling the play, but doesn’t quite have the power to end neutral points. Seems like his style might fall a bit into the Russian’s comfort zone. Khachanov in 5
Wesley: Khachanov can be consistently tough, but the Spaniard has a higher gear, and he has been hitting it of late. He should have no trouble with the Russian’s power, given his own combination of power and speed, but Khachanov may have trouble keeping up with Carreno Busta’s attacking forehand. Khachanov may blast his way through a set, but I think Carreno Busta should take it. Carreno Busta in 4
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Matteo Berrettini
Jakub: Long dramatic matches have become the Spaniard’s calling card at slams, providing the fans with another one as he beat Marton Fucsovics in a fifth-set tiebreak. I would be surprised if it goes this far this time though if Berrettini brings his game from the last match. The Italian executed a focused performance with the booming forehand leading him to victory over Andy Murray. Berrettini is a title contender in my eyes and should advance here. Berrettini in 4
Damian: Matteo Berrettini has been a phenomenal Slam player over the past couple of years or so. Some players struggle in the best-of-five format, some excel at it and it looks like the Italian is definitely among the latter group. On a fairly fast hard court, he’s gotta treat this one as a rather favorable draw.
Berrettini in 4
Wesley: Davidovich Fokina can be a pesky opponent, but it feels a bit like he would be playing above his level to make it to the QFs of the US Open, especially since his best surface is clay. Berrettini, on the other hand, feels like he has more to accomplish here, and has had a good season, having been on a roll before his injury. He should outserve and outhit the Spaniard on his way to the quarterfinals, but the latter could scrap his way to a set. Berrettini in 4
Corentin Moutet vs Casper Ruud
Jakub: Moutet has become the first lucky loser in the fourth round of a slam since his countryman Stephane Robert at Australian Open 2014. The Frenchman bounced back well from his loss to Yibing Wu, getting a retirement from Stan Wawrinka before pulling off the upset over Botic Van De Zandschulp and seeing off Pedro Cachin. Ruud has also impressed, his matches getting tougher and tougher as he opened with a straight-set win over the returning Kyle Edmund, defeated Tim Van Rijthoven in four sets before outlasting Tommy Paul in a five-set classic. Moutet has the ability to make this match dramatic but Ruud should win this one. Ruud in 3
Damian: Casper Ruud pulled off a five-set win over Tommy Paul and he’s got every chance of going even further here. He’s not really a title contender, but he’s solid and doesn’t go below a certain level. While most effective on clay, the topspin forehand is a weapon in any conditions. Corentin Moutet has the flair and counter-punches very well, but will likely come up short, not able to maintain the required level for long enough. Ruud in 4
Wesley: Moutet was not given a terribly difficult path to the Round of 16, but credit the Frenchman with making the most of his opportunity. This feels like a draw, though, that probably made Casper Ruud feel pretty good about the quarterfinals when he saw it, and barring something unforeseen should be straightforward and clean. Ruud is likely smelling a good opportunity, knowing that either Medvedev or Kyrgios will be out after today, and that he has a fair shot at a first Slam. Ruud in 3
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