Jannik Sinner is quietly climbed to oddsmakers sixth favorite to capture this year’s US Open title. Many top seeds going down in early rounds have opened up the draw and Sinner is in prime position to make his first major semifinal and potentially go even deeper and fight for the title. Sinner is an elite talent and though he has not yet won a “big title”, this tournament is more open than any major in years for a young player to break through. Sinner has already made two major quarterfinals this year and certainly has the game to make a deep run and even win the tournament.
Can Jannik Sinner Win the US Open?
Why Sinner can win the Tournament
Jannik Sinner absolutely has one of the best games on tour and this tournament sets up well for him to win the title. He plays with a lot of power and had a great grass court season, highlighted by falling just one set short of beating eventual champion Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon quarterfinal. The US Open courts have been playing fast which plays right into Sinners hard-hit groundstrokes and ability to hit through opponents.
His career-best result came on a hard court last year where he made the final at the Miami Masters. He also made a strong run at this year’s Australian Open, where he eventually fell to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinal in a match where the Greek seemed as if he could do no wrong. Sinner struggled with a knee injury early in 2022, which forced him to withdraw from Indian Wells and retire in Miami, though he still managed to make the fourth round and quarterfinal respectively in each event. Sinner’s massive game on hard court and nine career top-10 wins shows he can play with the best and make a run to win this tournament.
Potential Road to the Title
Sinner has a reasonable path to the quarterfinal, playing Brandon Nakashima Saturday and then the winner of Ilya Ivashka and Lorenzo Musetti. Nakashima is a high-energy, talented American, though his limited experience in Majors and at a high level will give Sinner a significant edge. Musetti primarily excels on clay and Ivashka also just does not have enough firepower to keep up with Sinner from the baseline. The third seed Carlos Alcaraz will likely await in the quarterfinal, one of the serious favorites to win the tournament
However, Sinner has won both their meetings this year and his lone loss to the Spaniard came in a tight battler so he certainly matches up well with Alcaraz and has the game to defeat him. The semifinal will be difficult and likely depend on Nadal’s health. He has been struggling with a lingering ab injury and has not looked his best through his first two matches. Sinner has never beaten Nadal, but all three of their matches were on clay.
Sinner has a real chance at winning on a fast court against a hampered Nadal should they play in the semifinals, and the Italian would likely be favoured against Cameron Norrie or Andrey Rublev if one of them make it out of the section. The final would most likely be against Daniil Medvedev or Nick Kyrgios. Sinner beat Kyrgios in their lone meeting in Miami this year, and Sinner’s power and strong serve will be able to match that of Kyrgios.
Medvedev would be a substantial challenge to Sinner as the top player in the world and defending champion. However, Medvedev has not looked sharp this year after losing the Australian Open final, winning just one title in 2022 at the ATP 500 in Los Cabos. Medvedev and many of the other favorites look as vulnerable as ever, opening up a very real path for Sinner to get through and capture his first ever Grand Slam title.