When you hear about a World #1 returning to defend a Grand Slam trophy in men’s tennis, thoughts immediately flash towards Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer.
It’s been eons since anyone else was in that position. But in 2022, that all changes as Daniil Medvedev arrives in Flushing Meadows atop the men’s rankings and with a trophy to defend.
Can the enigmatic Medvedev go back-to-back at the US Open? His stunning straight-sets win over Djokovic in last year’s final helped propel him to the summit of men’s tennis. That said, as the old adage tells us: it’s harder to stay at the top than it is to get there.
With that in mind, here are three reasons why Medvedev will win again – and three why he will fall short.
Daniil Medvedev at the 2022 US Open
Why He’ll Win
The competition
Medvedev has won enough titles to prove he is the elite player his ranking suggests. Even so, there’s no doubt that this year’s field works in his favor. We now know there will be no Djokovic. There will be no Zverev, out due to his ankle injury. Rafael Nadal’s preparation has been less than ideal. Dominic Thiem is still far short of his 2020 US Open-winning level. Nick Kyrgios will be a dangerous threat in Medvedev’s quarter, but injury murmurs mean the Australian may not be at full power. This is a very manageable draw for Medvedev–now he needs to navigate it.
He loves (and hates) New York
This is unquestionably the Russian’s favorite Grand Slam, at least judging by on-court results. Aside from being current US Open champion, Daniil Medvedev has had plenty of success. His last three trips here have ended in the final, the semifinal and then with the trophy in his hands. His overall win/loss ratio is here is 20-4–certainly nothing to sniff at. During the 2019 tournament, the sometimes-abrasive Medvedev started to develop a strange love and hate rapport with the New York crowd. So far, that seems to help his performance rather than hinder it. By last year’s final, Flushing Meadows’ attitude towards Medvedev seemed to have softened. Expect that relationship to be a big story again this year.
Post-Wimbledon motivation
A motivated Medvedev is a dangerous Medvedev. As mentioned above, he seems to thrive on the energy of the crowd–especially if it’s hostile and directed at him. Banned from Wimbledon this year, the Russian missed the chance to compete on a grass surface on which he is quickly improving. Is it only six years since he lost to Marcus Willis in qualifying there? He would have had lofty aspirations for SW19 after a fourth-round appearance in 2021. He will surely use that to fire himself up here.
Why he Won’t Win
World #1 pressure
After first winning the world #1 spot in February, the topsy-turvy and frankly baffling ranking situation this year has seen Medvedev lose, regain and fortify the top spot, often without doing anything. His results while he has been #1 have been underwhelming though. His recent title win at Los Cabos was his first title this year. Troublingly, he has made a bad habit of losing in finals and semi-finals. While he has not played badly, he has lacked the clinical touch which saw him hoover up trophies as he lurked inside the world’s top five. There is a target on his back now – can he shake it off?
Australian Open hangover
It’s hard to say how much of Medvedev’s inconsistent form is due to that Australian Open final. There, Medvedev lost a two-set and a break lead to Rafael Nadal. John McEnroe said that Medvedev “choked” in that third set, and it’s hard to disagree. The shot selection was strange, and his interactions with the crowd were scratchy. Overall, everything suggested a lack of focus. After losing in the fourth round of the French Open and missing Wimbledon altogether, Medvedev has not faced a tough, backs-to-the-wall Grand Slam match since Australia. Indeed, his comments after that match in Melbourne indicate a strong change in attitude. If he is thrown into the fire, he will need to be ready.
No one defends in New York
For one reason or another, the US Open has been easily the least-predictable Grand Slam in men’s tennis over the past two decades. We know Nadal dominates the French and Djokovic dominates Australia. Wimbledon is a little more open, but Federer and Djokovic do have 15 titles between them. But no one has defended a men’s singles trophy in New York since 2008, when Roger Federer claimed his fifth in a row. Since then, the parade of winners has included the usual suspects, alongside the likes of Thiem, Stan Wawrinka, Juan Martin del Potro, and Marin Cilic. To be the US Open champion, Daniil Medvedev will need to snap a long streak.
Main Photo from Getty.
