We’ve all made it to the end of August, and our reward is the fourth major tournament of 2022. This will be one of the more “open” Grand Slam events. There are favourites but not clear runners. Novak Djokovic will not play due to continual Covid restrictions and him not being vaccinated. This opens up the field considerably. But who are the contenders at the US Open?
US Open Contenders
Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev is first on this list, primarily as defending champion. Medvedev shocked the world this time last year after defeating Djokovic in the final in straight sets, denying Djokovic the calendar slam in the process. He then looked set to back up his US Open win in the Australian Open final in January. It wasn’t to be as Medvedev threw away a two sets lead against Nadal in the final. Medvedev has not quite recovered from that painful (for him) experience. Medvedev made the grass final in Halle, but imploded Kyrgios style and lost against Hubert Hurkacz.
During the hard court season, Medvedev lost early to Kyrgios in Montreal and the semifinal against Tsitsipas in Cincinnati. In fact, Medvedev has only won one title so far this year, in Los Cabos earlier this month. Despite only one title and been barred from Wimbledon in the summer, Medvedev is the #1 player in the world. A sure indication of the flux men’s tennis is in currently.
As for the US Open, Medvedev will be favourite to defend his title but not by a clear margin. Medvedev’s form is patchy and he is not playing with any real authority. I also notice that Medvedev is consistently playing further and further behind the baseline, at times near the backboard. For a player who is 1 meter 98 tall with a big serve, it is remarkable to watch him scurry around like a small counterpuncher. This might well be an indication of Medvedev’s state of mind. Medvedev defending his title may well depend on a good draw, and whether he can play himself into form.
Rafael Nadal
As four time champion, Nadal will always be a strong contender, if fit.
This is the perennial question with Nadal, is he fit? Nadal withdrew from the semifinal of Wimbledon in July, and since then had a non-descript summer hard court season. Nadal missed the Canadian Open in Montreal and lost to eventual champion Borna Coric in Cincinnati. Having said that, it will be foolish to dismiss Nadal’s chances of winning the US Open.
This was demonstrated in January. With many odds against him, Nadal still took the Australian Open title in a “regulation” five hour marathon. Nadal won his 14th French Open in June and the talk centred on a possible calendar slam. This is not going to happen now but he can still win three majors in one season, matching his feat of 2010. If Nadal is at his best, there is no one to stop him, not least because opponents cannot match his staying power. Barring injury, his opponents’ best hopes is to beat him straight sets, easier said than done.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
2021 Tsitsipas’ US Open campaign can only be described as a debacle. One that left him at a crossroads. Tstitsipas was in danger of not realising his potential by making a series on non-decisions. Non-decisions in the sense that he needed to hire a full time coach, preferably an ex top 20 player. A coach who understands what it takes to play at the top level. Tsitsipas father and coach was not a former pro and Patrick Mouratoglou was not making the difference either. However, twelve months has passed and Tsitsipas’ game and mental state seems to be in worse shape.
Tsitsipas worked briefly with Thomas Enqvist earlier this year but we haven’t seen him since. More recently, Mark Philippoussis is sitting in Tsitsipas’ player box but is he full time? Tsitsipas lost the semifinal of the Australian Open to Medvedev, a player who he seems to have an issue with. Tsitsipas then lost in the fourth round of the French Open to Holger Rune and the third round of Wimbledon to Nick Kyrgios. In fact, the match at Wimbledon resembled a boxing bout than a tennis match; Kyrgios played the role of the wind up merchant completely unsettling Tsitsipas. Tsitsipas resorting to aiming many of his shots straight at Kyrgios, it was ugly. Hopefully Tsitsipas learned from that experience.
Tsitsipas has won two tournaments this year in Monte Carlo on clay and Mallorca on grass. The hard court season didn’t go to plan, losing in Canada to Jack Draper in round 3 then the final of Cincinnati to Borna Coric. A particularly painful loss, Tsitsipas started very well but proceeded to crack up mentally before our very eyes. Not running down certain shots and hitting the most ludicrous shanks, one of his worst performances. Tsitsipas was clear favourite going in as Coric was coming back from injury and ranked over 100. His comments in the presentation were not very good either, describing his opponent akin to playing against a “robot”.
Tsitsipas didn’t have the technical skills to beat a solid player, nothing to do with Coric who hit some great backhands down the line. As with Medvedev, we need to question Tsitsipas’ state of mind coming into the US Open. Intriguing so many top players have not got a clear head at present. No idea how Tsitsipas’ tournament will go despite his status and ranking, let’s see what happens.
Carlos Alcaraz
The question is whether Alcaraz is a contender at the US Open. Alcaraz has flattered to deceive in the second half of 2022. After winning Miami and Madrid masters, the tennis world were expecting big things. Since then Alcaraz lost the quarterfinal of the French Open to Alexander Zverev, which was slightly surprising. He then lost in the fourth round of Wimbledon to Jannik Sinner, which was even more surprising. During the hard court season, Alcaraz lost early in Canada and the quarterfinal of Cincinnati to Cameron Norrie.
Perhaps at 19 years of age, we are expecting too much too soon. Alcaraz has time to develop his game and temperament. He is still learning how to pace himself at Grand Slam level and the best of five sets scenario.
With the opportunity of seeing Alcaraz over an extended period, we can begin to identify strengths and weaknesses. Alcaraz’ backhand is a rally shot more or less. He needs to use it more as a weapon, to take the pressure off having to hit forehand winners. Especially running around the backhand to hit forehands regularly. Alcaraz also needs to develop a better first serve, at the moment he is not getting enough free points. As a shot-maker he must change that. Having a top notch serve will be prerequisite if Alcaraz wants to become a great player; he is not built to play like Nadal.
As for this US Open, yes he is a contender, an opportunity to remind the world what he is capable of. The priority will be to make his first semifinal at a major tournament.
Ones to Watch:
Casper Ruud
Ruud was French Open finalist in June losing to Nadal. Ruud also made the semifinal in Canada, losing to Hurkacz. Clearly a hard worker in the Magnus Norman mode. Not sure he has the talent to win a tournament the size of the US Open.
Jannik Sinner
Along with Alcaraz, earmarked for big things in the future at the age of 20. So far, he has not demonstrated particular pedigree on hard courts, so the US Open is a good place to start.
Hubert Hurkacz
One of the more naturally talented players on the ATP tour. This has not really counted for much as he is not known outside of the hardcore tennis public. Hurkacz needs to start realising his potential at Grand Slam level. He has made one Wimbledon semifinal but frankly that is not enough for a player of his ability. He also reached the Canadian Open final losing Pablo Carreño Busta.
Borna Coric
A winner totally out of the blue in Cincinnati, he will feel great going into the US Open. However, the US Open is a totally different kettle of fish, if he makes the second week that will be a success and then anything can happen.
Main photo:
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