The ATP Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati has been a thrill so far, with incredible upsets featuring new talents like Ben Shelton and recovering talents like Borna Coric. Meanwhile, World #1 Daniil Medvedev continues to roll, as does Carlos Alcaraz, who may be on a crash course for the final. But top talents like Taylor Fritz and Stefanos Tsitsipas stand in the way and are looking very good, so it’s still a wide open tournament. And with the spate of upsets we’ve seen, anything is possible. We call the quarterfinal matches. Who do you think will win?
ATP Cincinnati Quarterfinals Predictions
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs John Isner
Head-to-head: Tsitsipas 4-2
It’s a surprise to see John Isner here given that he has had only a mediocre season. But he has not come through a slouchy draw, having just moved past Hubert Hurkacz and Sebastian Korda. Tsitsipas, meanwhile, has played with typical efficiency in Cincinnati, after a perhaps embarrassing loss to Jack Draper a week ago. Everything favors the Greek in this one, including the H2H, where the last four matchups were all Tsitsipas wins, and the losses came when he was only 19 and 20 and Isner was closer to the height of his powers. I predict a tiebreak or two, but the Greek in good form should handle the giant American like a pro.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 2
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Borna Coric
Head-to-head: 1-1
Everyone was expecting Ben Shelton to be the surprise of the tournament, but it turns out to be Borna Coric. Beating Nadal was the highlight of his last few years, but he also came through Lorenzo Musetti and the very difficult Roberto Bautista Agut, both in straight sets. Who is Coric now? Is he back? He’s looking like his pre-injury version at last, but he faces a stiff test in Felix Auger-Aliassime. The athletic Canadian held on against two match points in his win over Jannik Sinner, after coming through the tricky Alex de Minaur. It’s easy to bet against Coric’s last year, but it’s harder to bet against his fantastic last few days. I’ll give it to Felix, though, because he’s been consistently good and is playing well right now; but Coric gets credit for the recent excellence.
Prediction: Auger-Aliassime in 3
Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron Norrie
Head-to-head: Alcaraz 3-0
Alcaraz is back to doing what Alcaraz does. Norrie is quietly having an excellent season, and after a slow start has validated his breakout 2021 campaign. He’s had a soft draw here, however, first beating the struggling Holger Rune followed by Andy Murray, before crushing the sensational but questionable young Ben Shelton. The step up from Shelton to Alcaraz is a big one, and the H2H favors the Spaniard, two of those wins having come this year. Alcaraz outclasses Norrie by fourteen points in win percentage on hard, and should be able to move on. But Norrie’s wall of defense may force a fair number of errors out of Alcaraz’s sometimes reckless style.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Daniil Medvedev vs Taylor Fritz
Head-to-head: first meeting
It seems strange that this is the first meeting between these two, but it should be a good inaugural matchup. Fritz has been playing at the height of his powers this year, with less injuries than normal, and is knocking on the door of the top 10. Medvedev has had a quiet year for a #1, but is still Medvedev. Both players have almost identical records overall and on hard court this year, but Medvedev’s win percentage on the surface is nearly twenty points higher. Fritz can beat anyone if he serves well, but Medvedev is one of the best people to neutralize his power, given how far back he stands both on return and in rallies. This is too close to call with confidence, but I will give it to Medvedev both on the strength of his general game, and the tendency Fritz has toward injury.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Main Photo from Getty.
