ATP Montreal Final Prediction: Hubert Hurkacz vs Pablo Carreno Busta

Pablo Carreno Busta in action at the ATP Montreal Masters.

The absolutely loaded 56-man field in Montreal has dwindled down to two players as Hubert Hurkacz and Pablo Carreno Busta will meet for a chance at 1000 ATP ranking points on Sunday afternoon. Both players have battled their way to this final, playing the most in-form tennis of their respective seasons. The National Bank Open final in Montreal, Canada is set to get underway at 4:00 PM local time. Who will come out victorious?

ATP Montreal Final Prediction

Hubert Hurkacz vs Pablo Carreno Busta

#8 seed Hubert Hurkacz, who received a bye in round one, has won four, three-set matches to reach the finals in Montreal. The 25-year-old Pole has spent 8 hours and 32 minutes on court during his victories over Emil Ruusuvuori, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Nick Kyrgios, and Casper Ruud. This is the second Masters final for Hurkacz, who won the Miami Open back in 2021. He is looking for his sixth career ATP Tour title, and second of the year.

Unseeded Pablo Carreno Busta has fought his way through five rounds of tennis to reach his first career Masters 1000 final. The 31-year-old Spaniard has spent 8 hours and 28 minutes on court during his victories over Matteo Berrettini, Holger Rune, Jannik Sinner, Jack Draper, and Dan Evans. The current world #23 is looking for his seventh career ATP Tour title, and first of the year.

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Head-to-Head: Hurkacz 1-1 Carreno Busta

Hurkacz and Carreno Busta will be meeting for the third time on the ATP Tour. They split the previous two meetings, both hard court battles in 2021. Although both players have shown brilliance to get to this final, I would argue the Spaniard’s path was more impressive. Carreno Busta has not just defeated four top-40 players this week, he has dispatched them. The 31-year-old did not drop a set in Montreal until his semifinal battle with Dan Evans. It is well known how much Carreno Busta enjoys playing on hard courts. His consistency on the surface has shown through this week.

Hurkacz, whose aforementioned path to the finals was not as straightforward, looked virtually unbeatable in the final two sets of his semifinal victory over Casper Ruud. When Hurkacz’s serve is working, he is very tough to beat. The Pole uses his blistering serve to pull his opponents off the court and set up easy volleys and put-away forehands.

I see this match going the distance. Buckle up for what will likely be a 3+ hour battle. With that said, I give the slight edge to the Spaniard in his hunt for a first Masters 1000 title. Carreno Busta’s consistency should be able to wear down Hurkacz as the match progresses.
Prediction: Carreno Busta in 3

Main Photo from Getty.