ATP Atlanta Final Prediction: Alex de Minaur vs Jenson Brooksby

Alex De Minaur 2021 AO
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The ATP Atlanta Open has a familiar face in the final, but not the one we were expecting. Alex de Minaur will look to recapture his title, as Jenson Brooksby will try to dethrone two former champions in one tournament. Can the American grab his first ever title, or will the speed demon rack up career title number five? See our prediction below…

ATP Atlanta Final Prediction

Head-to-head: first meeting

Jenson Brooksby is finally starting to look right again. He had a good start to the season and then dropped off, but has come through a good draw here in Atlanta to make the final. In the quarters he came through six-time champion John Isner, and then saw off Frances Tiafoe in the semis. Alex de Minaur is himself a former champion, and has been playing good tennis this last month, although his draw here was very uninspiring. It’s anyone’s game, but the Aussie is a defending champion and a four-time hard court titlist, while Brooksby is looking to capture his first ever crown.

Both players are in their element here on the hard courts, and each has compiled a good record on the surface this year. De Minaur sits at 15-6, while Brooksby is at 13-4, and they have historically played at about that level. Brooksby, like many American players, is more or less exclusively a hard court player. He has the home court advantage, but de Minaur has no pressure to win, and is the fresher for having a first round bye.

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Generally speaking, the order of operations should be de Minaur attacking and Brooksby defending, with each trying to avoid the other’s forehand. Brooksby has the extra power, but de Minaur’s scrambling defense is becoming legendary, and those skills should offset. I see an advantage for de Minaur in his speed, because Brooksby likes to break out the backhand drop shot at times, and he can often hit it skillfully, which augments his  power well; but de Minaur is probably as good at picking it up as any player on tour.

I think all signs point to de Minaur, but only slightly. It will be interesting to see whether the pressure of a first title gets to Brooksby or whether it invigorates him. De Minaur’s defense can be frustrating, and he combines it well with instant offense, particularly from the forehand, and I think we may see errors build up off of Brooksby’s forehand, especially if he can’t get his drop shot to work.
Prediction: de Minaur in 3

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