Day two at the ATP Bastad Open closes out the first round after only three matches on the first day. Defending champion Casper Ruud sits in the draw, as well as last year’s other finalist Federico Coria. As always, we here at LWOT are offering our predictions for every match, including Aslan Karatsev vs Lorenzo Sonego. But who will reach the second round?
ATP Bastad Day 2 Predictions
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Joao Sousa
Head-to-head: first meeting
Davidovich Fokina’s 15-17 record this year doesn’t do justice to his capabilities. He has beaten a lot of good players, and had an incredible run to the final in Monte Carlo, which represents his upside. But he is about as inconsistent as they come, and therefore hard to predict. Sousa has been very mediocre, which is where he’s at at this point in his career. He will beat the bad version of Davidovich Fokina, and he will lose to the good version. Without knowing which version of the Spaniard will show up, I have to pick him based on his upside, with wins this year over Djokovic, Fritz, Hurkacz, de Minaur, and Dimitrov, among others.
Prediction: Davidovich Fokina in 3
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Federico Coria vs Federico Delbonis
Head-to-head: first meeting
This one could go either way. Delbonis is having a bad year, but his record is better on clay, which is his best surface. Coria is having a mediocre season, and is playing reasonably well on clay. He just dipped back into the Challenger circuit recently, probably to avoid grass, where he has recorded no wins in two tries. But clay suits him a lot better, as does Bastad specifically, where he was a finalist last year. Will Coria, who is fairly small, be able to handle the power of Delbonis? That should decide the match. On the basis of Coria’s performance here last year, I’ll give him the nod.
Prediction: Coria in 3
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Francisco Cerundolo vs Pedro Sousa
Head-to-head: Cerundolo 1-0 Sousa
Pedro—the other Sousa—is attempting his first match on the ATP tour this year, ranking very low at #430 in the world. He could have had a worse draw—say, Pablo Carreno Busta—but Cerundolo is a competent player and will represent a large hurdle for the Portuguese. That said, the Argentine should win this handily, as not much more than the difference of 400 places in the rankings needs to be said. The H2H was a Challenger in 2020, and Cerundolo has improved even more since then.
Prediction: Cerundolo in 2
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Holger Rune vs Marc-Andrea Huesler
Head-to-head: first meeting
This one is straightforward, with a difference of 80 ranking places between them, as Rune sits at a career-high of #28 in the world and rising. Huesler has yet to win a match on the ATP tour this season, and has yet to play a clay match at that level this year. Meanwhile, the last we saw Holger Rune, he was dispatching Stefanos Tsitsipas on the dirt, with a win earlier in the season against Zverev. He can reach a very high level, and has a clay title already this year, and now that he is back on clay he should continue to make major waves.j
Prediction: Rune in 2
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Dominic Thiem vs Emil Ruusuvuori
Head-to-head: Ruusuvuori 1-0 Thiem
Dominic Thiem is still searching for his first victory as he makes his way back from his hand injury. He has limited himself entirely to clay, and hasn’t been able to break through, although he won a match on the Challenger circuit. Emil Ruusuvuori, on the other hand, has quietly risen to the highest ranking of his career, at #43, although that doesn’t reflect his achievements on the clay surface, which he does not appear to like. His win came on hard court back in 2019, when Thiem was significantly better and Ruusuvuori significantly worse, and the current state of each player strongly suggests a win for the Finn.
Prediction: Ruusuvuori in 2
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