As the dust settles on Novak Djokovic’s triumph at Wimbledon, attention now turns to the regular ATP Tour, including the ATP Bastad Open. There are a number of intriguing matches on the schedule on day one in Sweden and, as always, we here at LWOT are offering our predictions. But who will book their place in the second round?
ATP Bastad Day 1 Predictions
Fabio Fognini v Marc-Andrea Huesler
Head-to-head: Huesler 1-0 Fognini
Fabio Fognini in the qualifying rounds of an ATP event? It’s been a minute… In fact, it hasn’t happened in 14 years. The Italian’s longevity isn’t praised very often but he’s been a deserved mainstay of the top-50 for a long time. All of a sudden, he’s struggling even to qualify for these events. It’s no coincidence. Fognini’s peaks are getting fewer and further between his troughs.
He does look visibly slower than he used to so it’s difficult to predict how he’ll get on from match to match. This second meeting with Marc-Andrea Huesler won’t be like their first one-sided affair when Fognini was coming back from injury. Fortunately this match-up is pretty kind – Fognini can take respite from the fact Huesler often suffers from the same dips and bounds as himself. If he can play close to average, he should come through a tight match.
Prediction: Fognini in 3
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Elias Ymer v Daniel Altmaier
Head-to-head: first meeting
Elias Ymer and Daniel Altmaier are in similar positions in terms of form. Both are starting to consolidate their positions within the top-100 and both have recently went on a decent run at Challenger level but have also suffered small runs of losses in the last month or so. At the same time, neither player is particularly suited to grass – they’ve generally excelled in recent times against lower-ranked players on clay.
So how does the match-up look? Altmaier’s one-handed backhand isn’t just for show – it holds up pretty nicely on a clay-court and gives him an added level of firepower that Ymer doesn’t necessarily have. These conditions are heavy though and being solid as they come makes a big difference. Ymer is as athletic as they come and will hold the advantage in this department. That should be more important in what will likely be a close match.
Prediction: Ymer in 3
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Lorenzo Musetti v Laslo Djere
Head-to-head: Djere 4-1 Musetti
In one of the more bizarre statistics from the ATP Tour, Lorenzo Musetti has lost four times in five meetings with Laslo Djere. Four out of five times. It’s general always been pretty close but still, for two players around the same ranking, this is a pretty lopsided head-to-head.
Djere is probably about as underrated as they come to be fair, a top-70 mainstay that has excelled in making himself incredibly difficult to beat on a clay-court. Form is a fine thing however especially for a momentum player like Musetti. A recent Challenger title in Forli where he dropped a set in every match can lend an air of invincibility to a player on their favourite surface. Djere may be difficult to beat but if Musetti can survive like he did in Forli he should scrape the win.
Prediction: Musetti in 3′
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Stan Wawrinka v Pablo Carreno Busta
Head-to-head: Wawrinka 3-0 Carreno Busta
This isn’t the best match-up for Pablo Carreno Busta. The Spaniard isn’t the best at dealing with players with overwhelming power – instead he tends to excel against players with similar game-styles to himself, such as Daniil Medvedev, Novak Djokovic and Roberto Bautista Agut of the world. Huge-hitters can beat him fairly comfortably – his final with Carlos Alcaraz in Barcelona was good evidence of that.
Stan Wawrinka doesn’t hit the ball quite as hard as he used too, and he certainly doesn’t move as explosively as in his glory days. This will keep things close, but Wawrinka still has plenty of power and the matchup is a good one for the Swiss even if Carreno Busta is a member of the world’s top-20. Expect Wawrinka to put together another one of his recent epics.
Prediction: Wawrinka in 3
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