It’s been an exciting week of tennis at the ATP Halle Open, and we’re down to two competitors fighting for the title: Hubert Hurkacz and Daniil Medvedev. This will likely be a serve-dominated match with both players trying to control the baseline and break points likely to be at a premium. But who will prevail?
ATP Halle Final Prediction
Daniil Medvedev vs Hubert Hurkacz
Head-to-head: Medvedev 2-2 Hurkacz
Hurkacz survived an extremely difficult challenge from Nick Kyrgios, taking the Aussie out in a third-set tiebreaker, 4-6 7-6(2) 7-6(4). Hurkacz served 27 aces and won 79% of the points behind his serve, only getting broken once. However, Hurkacz was not able to break Kyrgios’ serve in the match match, losing all 17 return games. Hurkacz, overall, has lost his last 29 return games in a row and 35 of his last 36 return games overall. That may be a concern for the Pole, but with the way he has been serving this week – he has won over 75% of his first-serve points in every match he has played in Halle – it might not matter. Hurkacz will have to continue to dominate on his first serve in this final.
Medvedev played clutch tennis in his 7-6(3) 6-3 victory over Oscar Otte. Medvedev saved a set point broke Otte when he was serving for the first set. Medvedev attacked Otte’s second serve well, winning 59% of his second-serve returns. Medvedev won 75% of his first serve points serving at 68% first-serves in, only getting broken once all match. Medvedev has not dropped a set all week, beating tough opposition such as David Goffin and Roberto Bautista Agut.
The Russian gets excellent consistent depth from the baseline and can ramp up the pace of his groundstrokes when he finds an opening. Medvedev’s serve has also been strong, having won at least 75% of his first serves in every match this week, and only getting broken once all week (he has saved 22/23 break points this week). The head to head is tied 2-2, although Hurkacz did win in five sets on the grass of Wimbledon last season. Medvedev is serving well and gets a lot of returns into play, which will be important against the Pole’s huge first serve. Medvedev’s flatter groundstrokes also cut through the baseline nicely and he is better equipped to play the aggressive baseline tennis needed to win this match.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
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