The second of the men’s semifinal matches has been set at the French Open. This battle doesn’t feature Rafael Nadal, but it should still be quite a spectacle. Marin Cilic won the US Open back in 2014, as well as reaching the final at Wimbledon in 2017 and at Melbourne Park six months later, but this is his best Grand Slam performance in some time. Casper Ruud, meanwhile, is in his biggest Major breakthrough to date. Who do you think will win? Our writers share their thoughts. Predicting this match are Shane Black, Jim Smith, Wesley Heilman, Andy Watson, Steen Kirby, and Jakub Bobro.
French Open Semifinal Predictions
Marin Cilic vs Casper Ruud
Shane:
Nothing has come easy for Casper Ruud this week, playing at least four sets in four of his five matches. Marin Cilic was pushed to five sets in his quarterfinal win over Andrey Rublev, but his aggressive style of play has served him well in Paris. Cilic has pounded 69 aces this week, including 33 in his last match. Ruud will test the legs of Cilic and force him to hit many extra shots to finish off points. I think the Norwegian wears down the 33-year-old Cilic and reaches his first career Grand Slam final.
Prediction: Ruud in 4
Jim:
Underestimate Marin Cilic at your peril. The Croatian’s victory at the US Open in 2014 is not talked about much, and it is also often overlooked that he reached the final at Wimbledon in 2017 and the Australian Open six months later. But that big match experience has served him well so far in Paris, where he has already scored two famous victories over Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev. Casper Ruud, who will be playing in his first Grand Slam semifinal, clearly has a bright future, but may be overawed by the occasion.
Prediction: Cilic in 5
Wesley:
Cilic was an attacking monster against Rublev, totaling 33 aces and 88 winners (with not a few errors to go with them). Ruud played the opposite style against Holger Rune, careful defense with less than half as many errors than winners. This clash of styles should make for good watching and should favor Ruud, who is playing at his level, whereas Cilic is spiking to an unusual high. Ruud should be able to handle Cilic’s power well, as he has in both their previous matchups.
Prediction: Ruud in 4
Andy:
The question I have to answer for myself in this prediction is whether Cilic’s history and experience will play a positive or negative role in the outcome of the match. There have always been doubts about Cilic as a closer but the way he closed the match against Rublev showed that he can absolutely turn it on at the key time. Ruud has a big forehand that he can deploy to either side, and he hits his spots brilliantly on serve. However, I think that Cilic’s wingspan and his current level of confidence will be able to cover that Ruud serve better than most and impose himself on the rallies. I am going to side with Cilic to seal this remarkable run to the final.
Prediction: Cilic in 4
Steen:
Ruud won both meetings, including a 2020 meeting on clay. the Norwegian player made relatively easy work of Holger Rune in the quarters and is now a match away from a first ever Grand Slam final. Cilic is a player who has been here before though, twice a Slam finalist; he has what it takes to find a way to win this match and his tennis at times this week has been absolutely sublime. He held strong against Andrey Rublev in the previous round, presuming he can recover after a five set war he has the big game needed to cause Ruud problems and win this match.
Prediction: Cilic in 4
Jakub:
Cilic has been on fire this Roland Garros, dropping just seven games against second seed Daniil Medvedev and then following it up with a fifth-set tiebreak win over Andrey Rublev. The Croat finally reached the Roland Garros semifinals in his 17th appearance here, though he did have a couple of quarterfinal runs before. According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo rating, Ruud has been a top five player on clay over the past year and it is tough to argue with that. The Norwegian stumbled against Lorenzo Sonego in the third round but looked very solid in his quarterfinal win over Holger Rune. The head-to-head leans in Ruud’s favour as he has won both of their previous meetings. With a win here, Cilic could become just the 11th ATP player in the Open Era to reach a final at all four slams in his career, and in his current form it will be difficult for Ruud to stop him.
Prediction: Cilic in 5
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