It’s been an exciting week of tennis at the ATP Madrid Open and we’re down to our final four competitors fighting to lift the trophy on Sunday. It should be an entertaining day of tennis in the Spanish capital, with two intriguing matches on the slate. But who will win and who will fall short of the final?
ATP Madrid Semifinal Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic
Head-to-head: first meeting
Carlos Alcaraz won his eighth match in a row and 14th out of 15 overall, as he beat Rafael Nadal 6-2 1-6 6-3 in Madrid. Even against an all-time great, Alcaraz did not let the moment get to him, as his forehand cut through the court and he showcased incredible movement and shot-making. Alcaraz’s touch shots were also superb and Nadal, along with many other recent opponents, were left on the defensive. Alcaraz returned well, winning 42% of the points on Nadal’s first serve and breaking four times.
Novak Djokovic has played excellent tennis this week in Madrid. In the quarterfinals, Djokovic beat Hubert Hurkacz 6-3, 6-4. Djokovic served very well, winning 81% of his first serves and not facing a break point all match. On return, Djokovic attacked the Hurkacz second serve, winning 63% of the points when Hurkacz gave a second delivery.
These two have never played before, so it will be fascinating to see how they match up. The road certainly doesn’t get easier, given how Djokovic has played this week in Madrid. The tennis world will need to monitor how Alcaraz’s ankle holds up, as he did roll it in the second set against Nadal.
Djokovic will try to get Alcaraz into backhand-to-backhand exchanges and won’t let Alcaraz push him around the court with his huge forehand. Djokovic is the fittest player of all time and has only played four sets this week, compared to eight for Alcaraz. The emotional energy for Alcaraz in beating Nadal may also take its toll on the young Spaniard. Djokovic’s serve will also be tougher for Alcaraz to handle.
Prediction: Djokovic in 2
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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alexander Zverev
Head-to-head: Tsitsipas 7-3 Zverev
Stefanos Tsitsipas is playing great tennis in Madrid this week. In his latest victory, Tsitsipas beat Andrey Rublev in a three-setter, 6-3 2-6 6-4. Tsitsipas won 81% of his first serves in the match and did a great job of playing attacking tennis from the baseline, especially on his forehand wing.
After a dreadful showing in Munich last week, Alexander Zverev has turned things around this week in Madrid. The defending champion beat Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-3, 7-5 in the quarterfinals to set up this showdown with Tsitsipas. Against Auger-Aliassime, Zverev won 74% of his first serves and was only broken once in the match. On return, he won 46% of his return points, including 62% on Auger-Aliassime’s second serve.
Tsitsipas leads the head to head 7-3 and won recently in Monte Carlo. However, Zverev’s groundstrokes look much improved compared to how he was playing in Monte Carlo. In addition, as Zverev’s title last year showed, he does well in high-altitude clay conditions. The altitude gives Zverev’s serve and groundstrokes a little extra pop.
Tsitsipas looked a bit shaky today against Rublev, as he was a little erratic from the ground. Zverev continues to strike the ball and dominate from the baseline. I think, in these conditions, the German can pull off the win and get to another Madrid final.
Prediction: Zverev in 3
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