We are heading towards the business end of the ATP Mutua Madrid Open with the final eight set on the men’s side. With excitement coming from every match-up, this day should be an exceptionally exciting one to bet on. Here’s where you can find some value.
ATP Madrid Day 4 Best Bets
Hubert Hurkacz vs Novak Djokovic
Starting with a bold prediction, I believe Hurkacz is priced as way too much of an underdog as Djokovic has not been entirely convincing on clay this year. The No. 1 looked largely shaky on his run to the finals in Belgrade and was outplayed by Andrey Rublev in large stretches. In Madrid, Djokovic easily beat Monfils (as he always does) and received a walkover due to Murray’s withdrawal. He is yet to have an actually impressive performance on clay this season.
Hurkacz is not the ideal upset favorite as clay is his worst surface but his performances on it this year have been far improved compared to previous seasons. The Pole’s most recent wins were over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Dusan Lajovic with the former being particularly impressive as the Spaniard has been a Top 15 player on clay over the past year according to the Elo rating. Hurkacz has placed Djokovic close in their last two matches so him pulling off the upset looks like good value, particularly if paired with the over on games as the match is unlikely to be a straightforward affair if Hurkacz is to win.
Hurkacz ML + over 21.5 games – 1 unit @ +450 (5.5, 9/2)
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexander Zverev
Betting Auger-Aliassime may look weird here as his clay results on the main tour have been mediocre at best despite showing promise on the surface early in his career. Even this year, the 21-year-old lost matches to Alex Molcan and Lorenzo Musetti this clay season, losses he should not be taking regularly at this point. The Canadian has been on fire for his first two matches though, allowing Cristian Garin and Jannik Sinner only six games combined. Zverev’s season has been mediocre for a player in the Top 5, reaching only one final in 2022 so far. His first two rounds here were not particularly impressive as the German dropped a set to Marin Cilic and Musetti retired mid-match.
On Zverev’s side, though, stand his two Madrid titles, including one last year, as well as a 4-2 lead in the head-to-head. An interesting and sort of complex match-up here that makes me feel like it’s almost a coin flip, which the bookies are not reflecting in the odds. Auger-Aliassime being placed as an underdog should provide some good value.
Auger-Aliassime ML – 1.5 units @ +162 (2.62, 81/50)
Carlos Alcaraz vs Rafael Nadal
This is one of the most exciting match-ups the tour can produce right now, with the best young player we have seen in years in Alcaraz facing off against his idol and countryman, one of the best to ever play the sport in Nadal, who showed he can still win major titles earlier this year. Alcaraz, the current No. 1 player in the overall Elo rating, is the slight favorite here but I still like him for a bet despite the line already moving into his favor. The 19-year-old’s Sunshine swing showed he moved onto a new level this season and he has confirmed it since during the clay season. His Monte Carlo loss to Sebastian Korda aside, Alcaraz has been undefeated on clay, winning the title in Barcelona and beating Nikoloz Basilashvili and Cameron Norrie in Madrid.
Nadal was very good early in the season, winning the Australian Open and reaching the final of Indian Wells as well as picking up two more titles. The 35-year-old suffered a rib injury in California though and has not been at his best in Madrid. His win over Miomir Kecmanovic was mostly straight forward but Nadal really struggled against David Goffin, saving four match points in the final set tiebreak. Alcaraz is the clear favorite for me and I think there is some value even at the current price, so I am backing him pretty heavily here.
Alcaraz ML – 2.5 units @ -125 (1.8, 4/5)
My Best Bets record so far: 15 units returned 16.92 including stake.
Recommended selections are based on a 5-unit betting system where 1 unit is a minimum stake, and 5 units are the maximum stake.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes only. LWOS makes no guarantees that the picks will win. Only gamble where it is legal to do so, and only amounts you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Main Photo from Getty.