ATP Madrid Day 4 Predictions, Including Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Lucas Pouille

Diego Schwartzman in action at the ATP Madrid Open.
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There should be plenty of entertaining tennis on day four at the ATP Madrid Open with a number of big names set to take to the courts in the Spanish capital. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the schedule, including Rafael Nadal vs Miomir Kecmanovic and Marin Cilic vs Alexander Zverev. But who will advance?

ATP Madrid Day 4 Predictions

Casper Ruud vs Dusan Lajovic

Head-to-head: Ruud 3-0 Lajovic

Dusan Lajovic has struggled this year. He has won less than a third of his matches, and hasn’t been able to gain any momentum. That rather suggests that this might not be the best time to face a clay-court specialist that he has failed to beat in three previous tries. Casper Ruud comes into the ATP Madrid Open having played well this year, and he has been very consistent the last couple years in handling lower-level competition. He suffered a little let-down after his run to the final in Miami, but should geared up to get back on track. Lajovic is a fine shot-maker when he is on song, but he can struggle when rushed and Ruud’s hard-hitting from both wings may be difficult for him to handle.

Prediction: Ruud in 2
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Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Head-to-head: Davidovich Fokina 2-1 Hurkacz

Hubert Hurkacz is back on court after a three week hiatus and, though he played well in his tournament, clay is certainly his worst surface. Still, it has been good a year so far for the Pole, particularly at Masters events. He reached the last four in Miami and the quarterfinals in Monte Carlo. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is roughly comparable in ranking and ability on the clay to two players Hurkacz beat in Monte Carlo, Pedro Martinez and Albert Ramos Vinolas, although Davidovich Fokina is more aggressive and energetic. The Spaniard had an excellent run to the final in Monte Carlo, but has otherwise not impressed this year. If it’s between Hurkacz, who has a low win percentage on clay, and Davidovich Fokina, who is streaky, go with the higher-ranked (and more experienced) man.

Prediction: Hurkacz in 3
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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Lucas Pouille

Head-to-head: Tsitsipas 2-0 Pouille

Stefanos Tsitsipas enters the tournament as one of the favourites again, and has been his usual impressive self this year, with two semifinal appearances, two finals, and a title. He has also played well in Madrid in the past,  reaching the finals in 2019. He faces an opponent who has struggled badly in the past couple years. After shutting down his season late in 2019 because of an elbow injury, which later required surgery, Lucas Pouille missed all of 2020. His ranking and his game have suffered since, as he has not been able to pull himself up to his previous top 10 level, and he currently sits at #174. Though the win against Karen Khachanov in the first round is a good sign, Tsitsipas is likely too strong an opponent for Pouille to be competitive at his current level.

Prediction: Tsitsipas in 2
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Diego Schwartzman vs Grigor Dimitrov

Head-to-head: Dimitrov 2-1 Schwartzman

It’s difficult to separate these two at the moment. Each is having a decent season, and has played fairly well recently, though Diego Schwartzman has more wins. They’re win percentage in Madrid is identical (though Grigor Dimitrov has twice the experience), with neither having been particularly impressive here over their careers. Dimitrov leads the head-to-head, but Schwartzman won their lone match on clay. Their win percentages on clay are almost identical, though Schwartzman has a couple more titles to his name. But it is hard to ignore that Schwartzman has been more consistent this year, has more wins this season, and that Dimitrov has struggled in Madrid the last few years.

Prediction: Schwartzman in 3

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