There should be plenty of entertaining tennis on day three at the ATP Madrid Open with 11 matches on the slate and several star names set to take to the court. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match, including Novak Djokovic vs Gael Monfils and Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Carlos Alcaraz. But who will advance?
ATP Madrid Day 3 Predictions
Hubert Hurkacz vs Hugo Dellien
Head-to-head: Hurkacz 1-0 Dellien
Hubert Hurkacz made a solid start to his 2022 clay-court season with a quarterfinal showing at the ATP Monte Carlo Masters, where he beat none other than Hugo Dellien in straight sets in the first round. That does not inspire great confidence in Dellien’s chances in this match, though the Bolivian did play some good tennis to come through the qualifying in Madrid with wins over Hugo Gaston and Mackenzie McDonald, both in straight sets.
The problem for Dellien is that if he could not beat Hurkacz in Monte Carlo, it is hard to see him doing it in Madrid. The conditions in the Spanish capital should suit Hurkacz’s aggressive style of play better than those in Monaco. In particular, good servers tend to thrive in Madrid and Hurkacz is one of the more effective servers in the men’s game. Dellien is a fine clay-courter, but he looks over-matched here. Expect a reasonably comfortable Hurkacz win.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 2
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Botic van de Zandschulp vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Head-to-head: first meeting
This should be an entertaining match. Both men come into it in good form, with Pablo Carreno Busta have made the final in Barcelona last-time out and Botic van de Zandschulp fresh from a final showing of his own in Munich last week. The Dutchman’s week did end in considerable disappointment, however, as he was forced to retire after only seven games. That raises some concerns about whether he will be fit enough to compete in this match.
Carreno Busta, meanwhile, was thrashed in the final in Barcelona by Alcaraz, but it was in all other respects a very encouraging week for the Spaniard, who had not made a particularly impressive start to the season. If he can maintain the level he displayed in his hometown, it should be another good week for the world #18. Carreno Busta gives very little away from the baseline, but can also step in and dictate when he needs to. He should have just about too much for van de Zandschulp.
Prediction: Carreno Busta in 3
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Reilly Opelka vs Sebastian Korda
Head-to-head: first meeting
This will be the first meeting between Reilly Opelka and Sebastian Korda, but it seems safe to assume that there won’t be too many secrets between the two. Opelka won the first clay-court title of his career last month in Houston, but he was unable to back that up last-time out in Munich, crashing out in the first round at the hands of Oscar Otte. But he should find the conditions in Madrid rather more to his liking. Whether that will be enough for him to beat Korda is another matter.
Korda looks unusually at home on the European clay for an American and has been playing some solid tennis of late. He reached the third round in Monte Carlo and the semifinals in Estoril, albeit also losing to Carlos Taberner in the first round in Barcelona. Facing Opelka will be a relatively unique challenge, particularly in Madrid where the altitude rewards big servers, but Korda has plenty of power of his own and should have enough to get the better of his compatriot.
Prediction: Korda in 3
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Andy Murray vs Denis Shapovalov
Head-to-head: Shapovalov 1-0 Murray
Andy Murray’s struggles (using the term loosely) on clay early in his career were always hard to understand and the Briton showed exactly what he could do on the surface by winning the title in Madrid in 2015. He returned to the final a year later and whilst a repeat of that looks unlikely in the extreme, he did look sharp in beating Dominic Thiem 6-3 6-4 in his opener, even if the Austrian was not at his best. Denis Shapovalov will likely provide a sterner test, however.
The Canadian dismantled Murray on the lawns at the All England Club last year and has the power to do the same again. Harnessing that power effectively is not always straightforward for Shapovalov, but he has a solid record in Madrid, reaching the semifinals in 2018, and played well to beat Ugo Humbert 7-6 6-3 in the first round. Unless Murray can find a way to consistently keep him on the back foot, expect Shapovalov to record another straight-sets win here.
Prediction: Shapovalov in 2
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