Day three at the ATP Madrid Open brings us a blend of first and second-round men’s singles action. What are the best bets on offer on the men’s side in Madrid?
ATP Madrid Day 3 Best Bets
Carlos Alcaraz vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
Carlos Alcaraz’s dominance this year has been almost unmatched. Three titles including Miami, third in the Race, and breaking the top 10 at just 18 years old. Nikoloz Basilashvili has been really poor this year with a 5-13 record. He has started to win a couple of matches recently but I cannot see him seriously worrying the Spaniard here. Alcaraz to win in straight sets provides a little bit of value, though I will admit that it is a conservative pick to start with.
Recommended selection:
Alcaraz 2-0 – 2 units @ -303 (1.33, 1/3)
Sebastian Korda vs Reilly Opelka
This all-American derby in the first round is also the first time these two players meet. Sebastian Korda is the betting favorite, though not enough in my opinion. The 21-year-old has shown his clay pedigree in the past with his breakout 2020 Roland Garros run, Parma title, and most recently, a semifinal run in Estoril. Korda looked great on that run, allowing Felix Auger-Aliassime only four games in their quarterfinal match but let Frances Tiafoe get back into a semifinal that Korda should have won. Reilly Opelka did win Houston this year but I am still skeptical of him as a regular threat, especially on the clay. I like the odds here for Korda, I see him more as a -200 favorite, giving us some value.
Recommended selection:
Korda ML – 2 units @ -139 (1.72, 18/25)
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Jenson Brooksby
Finally a bit of a more daring combo bet. Roberto Bautista Agut started the year with a bang, reaching the ATP Cup final and winning Doha. His season has petered out a bit recently, unable to string together deeper runs. Despite that, I like Bautista Agut Moneyline on its own here with how inexperienced Jenson Brooksby is on red clay. However, the Spaniard has not been at his best on clay for a couple of years now and their previous meeting in Miami makes me feel like it will be a long match here, so I threw in the over on games. With the line at 22.5, a 7-6 6-3 scoreline would be enough while a three-set match would essentially guarantee it.
Recommended selection:
Bautista Agut ML + over 22.5 games – 1 unit @ +225 (3.25, 9/4)
My Best Bets record so far: 5 units returned 7.74 including stake.
Recommended selections are based on a 5-unit betting system where 1 unit is a minimum stake, and 5 units is the maximum stake.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes only. LWOS makes no guarantees that the picks will win. Only gamble where it is legal to do so, and only amounts you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
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