Day 2 of the ATP Madrid Masters brings us the first full slate of matches. The tournament is filled with big names and returning superstars, and should be exciting and unpredictable. As always, we predict all of the day’s matches. We split the 14 matches between four articles. In addition to this article, we have others featuring Andy Murray vs Dominic Thiem, Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul, and Karen Khachanov vs Lucas Pouille. Who do you think will win?
ATP Madrid Day 2 Predictions
Gael Monfils vs Carlos Gimeno Valero
Head-to-head: first meeting
The Spaniard Valero is fresh onto the ATP tour; this is literally his first ATP match. He is exclusively a clay court player, having almost no matches on other surfaces on the Challenger Tour or in Futures. His movement in the rankings since beginning his career a few years ago has been sporadic, and he currently sits at #369. Monfils has had a good season that includes a title and a win over Daniil Medvedev (#1 in the world at the time), and he is back on court after his second month-long break. (The Medvedev victory followed his first break.) He should be feeling rested, and sitting at #21 in the midst of a good season, while facing an opponent who is fresh out of the box, sees him the heavy favorite.
Prediction: Monfils in 2
Fabio Fognini vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
Head-to-head: Fognini 1-0 Basilashvili
Basilashvili failed to repeat in Munich, and has not looked good since early in the season, finally logging his first win since February. He has also failed to win a match in Madrid in three tries, which likely won’t help his on-court malaise. Fognini has had a mediocre season, but also doesn’t seem to take well to Madrid, compiling a 7-12 record here over the years. He’s certainly a more potent prospect in early rounds of tournaments, and it doesn’t feel like he’s playing the 20th-ranked player in the world here; but he is always a dice roll. Given Basilashvili’s funk, though, I have to go with the Italian.
Prediction: Fognini in 3
Denis Shapovalov vs Ugo Humbert
Head-to-head: Shapovalov 2-1 Humbert
Shapovalov’s season has slowed down after a good run to the quarterfinals of the Australian Open. He has, in fact, not been on court the last five weeks. He’ll be looking to recapture early-season and early-career form, as he was a semi-finalist in Madrid in 2018. His opponent has fared poorly this season; after an excellent win against Daniil Medvedev to begin the year, Humbert has notched only two victories since. To make matters worse for the Frenchman, both of his H2H matches against Shapovalov on clay have been victories for the Canadian. And he has dropped the only main draw match he has played here, and indeed only made it through qualifying this year as a Lucky Loser. Shapovalov might take some warming up to get back in a groove, but he should take this.
Prediction: Shapovalov in 3
Diego Schwartzman vs Benoit Paire
Head-to-head: Schwartzman 3-1 Paire
Benoit Paire has not yet recovered from his covid sadness, and has a disastrous 2-11 record on the year, both wins coming way back at the Australian Open. He was affected by the bubbles and the lack of fans perhaps more than any other top player, and he has yet to find his form again. Schwartzman is playing decently, with a couple top 10 victories on the year, and he will be playing for his 20th victory overall. He looked very good against Stef Tsitsipas in Monte Carlo, until he dropped a big lead in the third set. But he shook off the disappointment and responded with a run to the semis at Barcelona that included a victory over Felix Auger-Aliassime. His quality is good at the moment, and Paire’s is not, and the Argentine should cruise.
Prediction: Schwartzman in 2
Main Photo from Getty.
