After some rain delays, Day 3 brings top players off their byes, and gives us the opportunity for some interesting upsets. Two major catastrophes have already been averted (players ranked over 750 and 1000 not able to swing their upsets), and some interesting matches ensue, including the defending champion trying to jumpstart his season. We predict all five of Wednesday’s matches.
ATP Munich Day 3 Predictions
Emil Ruusuvuori vs Maxime Cressy
Head-to-head: Ruusuvuori 1-0 Cressy
This matchup favors the Finn strongly, most notably in that Cressy had a 0% win percentage on clay at the ATP level before this tournament (0-2). He appears to be allergic to the surface, having avoided it since the Futures level and sticking almost entirely to hard courts. Ruusuvuori definitely prefers hard court, but it’s hard not to have an advantage over 0%. Furthermore, Ruusuvuori has won their lone H2H, as well as a Challenger (both on hard court), and has had a decent season to date, whereas Cressy’s win over Dan Evans in Round 1 was his first quality win since January. The numbers point against the struggling American, but the win over Evans gives me pause.
Prediction: Ruusuvuori in 3
Miomir Kecmanovic vs Daniel Altmeier
Head-to-head: first meeting
Kecmanovic has been by far the better player this year, moreso even than the difference in their ranking would suggest. Altmeier has yet to log a good win at the ATP level this year, while Kecmanovic has beaten top 10 players, and went toe-to-toe with Novak Djokovic last week. The young Serb has notched twenty wins already this season, compared to only three for the German. Neither has a particular preference for or advantage on clay, and all signs point to a clean victory for Kecmanovic.
Prediction: Kecmanovic in 3
Cristian Garin vs Alejandro Tabilo
Head-to-head: Garin 1-1 Tabilo
A matchup of Chile’s top two players that is their second H2H this year, the earlier won by Tabilo. However, Tabilo has not otherwise looked good since the beginning of the year. Early wins brought him inside the top 100 for the first time in his career, but little has gone right since. Garin has not excelled either, but at least made the semis of Houston recently. Garin is by far the more accomplished player, with five titles (all on clay), one of which was here in Munich in 2019. He should win, but Tabilo is a streaky player with a style and athleticism of a Nick Kyrgios Lite, and he could pull out a second upset.
Prediction: Garin in 3
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Ilya Ivashka
Head-to-head: first meeting
This is an ugly matchup. It’s ugly because there is nothing clear cut to pick a winner, and because it features a player who is arguably the one struggling most on tour right now, who also happens to be the defending Munich champion. Basilashvili has won only three matches all year, the whole set coming in a run to the finals in Doha in February. Otherwise no wins on the year—which doesn’t give a whole lot of confidence for a repeat crown. Ivashka, though, does not inspire, without great wins this year either. But he, too, fared well at Munich last year, reaching the semis. Both play about the same on clay. Something has to give, though, and I have more confidence in Ivashka right now.
Prediction: Ivashka in 3
Alexander Zverev vs Holger Rune
Head-to-head: first meeting
Not much commentary is needed here. Zverev is tuning up at a 250, an event at which he was repeat champion from 2017-2018. When last we saw him two weeks ago, he was beating top competition at Monte Carlo en route to the semis. Rune is just getting his ATP feet wet, though he figures to be a force in the future, having risen consistently over the past couple years to his current career-high of #70. He has knocked off players as highly ranked as Aslan Karatsev and Cristian Garin, but Zverev is likely out of his league for now.
Prediction: Zverev in 3
Main Photo from Getty.
