The ATP Monte Carlo Masters has distilled down to the quarterfinals, where we find a mixture of top seeds and surprises. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is a refreshing new addition to a field that sees reigning champion Stefanos Tsitsipas continue rolling. As always, we here at LWOS give our breakdown of the matchups, but who will come out on top?
ATP Monte Carlo Quarterfinal Predictions
Taylor Fritz vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Head-to-head: Davidovich Fokina 1-o Fritz
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina loves Monte Carlo. He prefers clay anyway, but in two stops in Monaco he has a 6-1 record, including victories over Novak Djokovic, Matteo Berrettini, and Alex de Minaur. He gets as his reward a surging Taylor Fritz, who continued his push toward the top 10 with a win over Sebastian Korda.
Fritz finally found his serve, smashing eleven aces in a two-set victory against his fellow American compared to only eight in his six previous sets). The head-to-head here appears to favor the Spaniard, but it doesn’t include another meeting on clay in the qualifier of the Madrid 1000 in 2018, which the American won. This could be a good match, with the energetic Spaniard capable of running down all sorts of shots on the clay, but if Fritz has found his form again, his power can be difficult to deal with.
Prediction: Fritz in 3
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Grigor Dimitrov vs Hubert Hurkacz
Head-to-head: Dimitrov 1-0 Hurkacz
One of the surprise victories of the tournament was sprung by Grigor Dimitrov, as the veteran Bulgarian handed a two-set defeat to clay court connoisseur Casper Ruud. Hubert Hurkacz, for his part, handed another clay specialist a Round 2 defeat, handling Albert Ramos-Vinolas in two as well. None of this makes the current pick easy. Hurkacz has generally played poorly on clay, but has been excellent overall this year, most notably beating Daniil Medvedev.
Dimitrov has been solid if not spectacular so far in 2022, but he has an excellent history at Monte Carlo, with arguably the best victory in the tournament this year. By way of contrast, Hurkacz’s victories so far in Monte Carlo haven’t been particularly impressive. With Dimitrov was very impressive in his win over Ruud, and his history in Monte Carlo excellent, expect him to have the edge here.
Prediction: Dimitrov in 3
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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Diego Schwartzman
Head-to-head: Schwartzman 2-1 Tsitsipas
Reigning champion Stefanos Tsitsipas still sits in the draw, not having dropped a set yet, while other contenders have fallen around him. Diego Schwarzman, for his part, has also pulled his weight, with three quality victories. This match favors the Greek, who leads the Argentinian in all categories except the head-to-head, though his one victory was their only matchup on clay.
Furthermore, Schwartzman has spent seven and a half hours on court this week, to only three for Tsitsipas. It usually takes a Herculean effort to get past the great Greek on clay, and while Schwartzman flashes those capabilities from time to time, expect his results to be ultimately Sisyphean here. That said, it won’t be easy for Tsitsipas here.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 3
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Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner
Head-to-head: Zverev 2-1 Sinner
Jannik Sinner just recorded an impressive victory over world #8 Andrey Rublev, storming back after a first set loss to drop only four games in the next two sets. Otherwise his resume this year has been more impressive in number than in actual difficulty (19-3 on the season, but with only two of those wins being top 20 players). Alexander Zverev is cruising this tournament, finishing his two matches in a total of three hours, but he also lacks a resume this year as impressive as his ranking.
The German is a more natural and accomplished clay-court player than Sinner, and has experience winning big tournaments (he has won three Masters 1000 titles on clay so far in his career). The young Italian, by contrast, is still searching for his first Masters title. It will surely come sooner rather than later, but whilst Sinner should provide a test for Zverev here, expect the German to overpower him.
Prediction: Zverev in 3
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