The ATP action in Indian Wells starts to pick up with some good Day 3 matches, as the stars come in off of their byes. As always, we at LWOT predict all the day’s action.
ATP Indian Wells Day 3 Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz vs Mackenzie McDonald
Head-to-head: first meeting
Carlos Alcaraz is blooming, and something unusual would have to trip him up for him to lose this match. McDonald had a good win in the first round (where he won a wild 12 of 13 break points), and he is good for an upset every now and then, but Alcaraz is strong and getting stronger. Hard court win percentage favors the Spaniard by over 20 percentage points, while year-to-date performance swings heavily in the same direction—Alcaraz won a stunning title in Rio that saw him take three matches in 24 hours, while McDonald sits around .500 for the year. This would should follow the seeding.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Cameron Norrie vs Pedro Martinez
Head-to-head: Norrie 1-0 Martinez
After a slow start to the season, Cam Norrie has found his form from 2021. His last three tournaments have been a quarterfinal, a title, and a final, the third of which was a loss to the great Nadal. Add this to the fact that he won Indian Wells last year, and you have to expect a good performance in the tournament. Martinez has played well, with a title himself, though he hasn’t had a lot of success on hard courts. This match features two careful players with big forehands, and should have a lot of long (if maybe tedious) rallies. They’re playing similarly, but Norrie is playing at the higher level.
Prediction: Norrie in 3
Roberto Bautista Agut vs J.J. Wolf
Head-to-head: first meeting
Wolf is responsible for the biggest upset so far, unseating #68 Hugo Gaston while occupying world #209 himself. However, he now faces a player of considerably greater skill in Bautista Agut, who is 14-4 on the year with a title, has infinitely more experience, and a much better record on hard courts (Wolf has, in fact, only played ten tour-level matches). Now, the last time I was talking about the Spaniard, I was predicting that he not get upset by a low-ranked Jiri Vesely (who turned out to be supercharged on that particular occasion), but a loss here would be even more unlikely.
Prediction: Bautista Agut in 2
Denis Shapovalov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Head-to-head: first meeting
This is a straight-forward match in which Shapovalov leads in all categories. The world #13 has played well this year, including a deep run at the Australian Open, while his opponent has struggled this season against high-quality opponents. Shapovalov is also more experienced and plays better on hard courts. It should be a high-energy affair, and while I think Davidovich Fokina will not be blown away by the Canadian’s power, the latter looks a lot better at this point.
Prediction: Shapovalov in 2
Main Photo from Getty.
