The first round of the ATP BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells has given us some interesting matches, including a player ranked outside the Top 200 moving on to Round 2. Day 3 matchups bring in the heavy-hitters after their byes, including World #1 Daniil Medvedev. Below we predict the outcomes, including Jannik Sinner vs Laslo Djere.
ATP Indian Wells Day 3 Predictions
Daniil Medvedev vs Tomas Machac
Head-to-head: first meeting
This one shouldn’t be overthought. The newly-minted world #1 has been nearly unbeatable this year; after losing his first match to Ugo Humbert with two tiebreaks, he has otherwise only lost to Nadal. Hard court is his favorite surface, and his young opponent has only played fourteen tour-level matches. There’s not a whole lot of data to compare them, but the only significant stat is that this is an inexperienced player vs. the world #1 on his surface of choice.
Prediction: Medvedev in 2
Jannik Sinner vs Laslo Djere
Head-to-head: Sinner 0-2 Djere
Is Jannik Sinner still just 20-years old? We talk about players older than him as if they’re just breaking into the tour. He has played so competently at such a young age that we have forgotten that he’s still young, an illusion enhanced by the lack of emotional outbursts or mental immaturity one might expect of his peers. One might look at the H2H here and think Djere presents a good challenge, but both those wins were on clay, where Djere has a much higher win percentage (his hard court win percentage is only 25%, compared to Sinner’s 71%). Sinner is 11-2 this year, with both losses in quarterfinals, although he doesn’t have a marquee win this season. But Djere is just 3-5, with the aforementioned dearth of hard court victories. I would expect Sinner to handle this one well.
Prediction: Sinner in 2
Casper Ruud vs Christopher Eubanks
Head-to-head: first meeting
Here is another matchup between a very high-level player and one without almost any experience. The only drawback for Ruud here (who has a title already in 2022) is that he prefers clay over hard court; but his win percentage on the surface still outclasses Eubanks’ threefold. I would expect Ruud’s hard-hitting and strong defense to force a lot of errors from Eubanks, especially on his backhand, which is by far the weaker side.
Prediction: Ruud in 2
Karen Khachanov vs Jenson Brooksby
Head-to-head: first meeting
This should be an interesting matchup. Khachanov is well-established in the Top 30 or so, and is one of the most aggressive and hard-hitting players on tour. Brooksby is inexperienced but is one of the rising young stars, and he defends very well, with plenty of size and power to handle Khachanov’s pace. Both have reached a final at the 250 level this year, though Brooksby has still been dipping down into Challengers. This one is a toss-up to me. I like Khachanov’s experience, and I like Brooksby’s burgeoning talent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one end in a tiebreak. If Brooksby’s head isn’t taken out of the game, I think he can come away with this.
Prediction: Brooksby in 3
Main Photo from Getty.
