Day one at the ATP Dubai Championships featured some upsets, and one player ranked outside the top 300 coming very close to pulling off a big shock. There should be more entertaining tennis on day two with 11 matches on the slate. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match, including Karen Khachanov vs Alex de Minaur and Lloyd Harris vs Alex Molcan. But who will come out on top?
ATP Dubai Day 2 Predictions
Aslan Karatsev vs Mackenzie McDonald
Head-to-head: Karatsev 1-0 McDonald
A recent matchup between these two — their first — gives some indication as to how this might play out. Aslan Karatsev beat Mackenzie McDonald in four in the second round at the Australian Open and looks to be the favourite according to just about every other metric, except that he hasn’t played at all well since that victory. The Russian started the year in fine fashion, with a title in Sydney, but has been slumping recently, while the American has been mediocre so far in 2021. Karatsev has been the better hard court player since his rise to prominence over the last year, and in fact won Dubai in 2021, and that has to favour him against McDonald in the first round here.
Prediction: Karatsev in 3
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Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Jannik Sinner
Head-to-head: first meeting
Jannik Sinner is far the superior player, especially on hard courts. In fact, his win percentage on this surface is nearly 20 points better than Alejandro Davidovich Fokina’s. He’s also made a much better start to the season than his opponent, with the Spaniard winning only one of the five matches he has played so far. That said, Sinner’s seven wins this year have been against relatively low-ranked opponents, and he has not played since the Australian Open. He has also just made a coaching change. Stylistically, the fiery Spaniard is an attacking player, and the young Italian star is an excellent defender, which should make for a good battle. But Sinner packs a punch of his own and should be able to take care of business here.
Prediction: Sinner in 2
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Dan Evans vs Andrey Rublev
Head-to-head: Evans 2-1 Rublev
Andrey Rublev is coming off a title in Marseille and should have a lot of confidence, having Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final, after the Canadian knocked him out of the semifinals the week before in Rotterdam. The Russian has also had a good start to the season overall, going 9-2, and he typically plays well on hard courts. Dan Evans has also started the year well, with three good victories at the ATP Cup in January, and seven victories against three losses overall.
He is less proficient on hard courts than Rublev, but won their lone matchup, which happened to be here in Dubai in 2020. The Briton may also be the fresher for not having come straight from a final, but Rublev is young and, frankly, is a better player than the man Evans beat two years ago. Expect the seeding to hold as the Russian rides the momentum from his recent title.
Prediction: Rublev in 3
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Marton Fucsovics vs Denis Shapovalov
Head-to-head: Fucsovics 1-0 Shapovalov
A matchup of hard-hitters featuring the aggressive Denis Shapovalov against the almost Andy Murray-like Marton Fucsovics. Neither player has a strong edge over the other, though Shapovalov has been the better player over the last year, while Fucsovics won their lone head-to-head. Shapovalov started the season very well, helping Team Canada win their first ATP Cup, and a quarterfinal appearance in the Australian Open on the back of a huge win over world #3 Alexander Zverev.
Since then he has been uninspiring, however. Fucsovics, meanwhile, has played reasonably well, but he hasn’t lodged a victory this season over top 20 competition. Both had success in Dubai last year, Fucsovics advancing to the quarters and Shapovalov to the semis, and this could end up being a good match that goes the distance. But expect the sixth seed to have the edge, even if he has to the distance to get the win.
Prediction: Shapovalov in 3
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