While a match between a wild card and the #148 player in the world may not seem significant, I wanted to take a deep look at this matchup because of the uniqueness of Christopher O’Connell. Andy Murray is always a fun analysis, anyway, because of both his history and his current limbo status as a superstar name who combines incredible skill with waning endurance. But O’Connell is interesting because he has a throwback playing style. So here we take a look at an aging hard court maestro vs. an interesting outlier.
Andy Murray vs Christopher O’Connell
A Rare Stroke
First of all, what is unusual about Christopher O’Connell? The most obvious thing is his one-handed backhand, a stroke that is slowly going the way of the dodo bird.
But even more unusual than the backhand is the way he produces the stroke. Most tennis these days is power tennis, but O’Connell’s backhand is not a power backhand. Whereas players like Dominic Thiem, Stan Wawrinka, and Lorenzo Musetti produce their strokes from the shoulder, utilizing the large muscle groups of the body to create a powerful stroke that works well on both hard courts and clay, O’Connell’s strokes (forehand and backhand) are produced by the small muscle groups, dominated by the elbow and the wrist. This is easier to see on the forehand, but the effect is apparent from both wings–the ball lands more shallow in the court, and doesn’t shoot off the racket with the same velocity as the shoulder-swingers.
What’s wrong with that? Well, nothing per se; it worked well for Pete Sampras. But fine strokes that impart control at the expense of power are not the order of the day in 21st century tennis. And O’Connell’s record at ATP events testifies to that. He has played only 23 in a decade-long career, and won just seven of them. Small muscle group strokes make it hard to hit through the ball on clay especially, and power strokes dominate hard courts as well. O’Connell would likely find the most success on grass (again, the Sampras comparison), but there are few grass tournaments left, and O’Connell has played just one grass ATP match in his career.
O’Connell Comparisons
Has anyone had success with O’Connell’s strokes? Don’t balk at this answer: Roger Federer. And to a lesser extent, Grigor Dimitrov. But there are differences, first in size, and second in that O’Connell is a defensive player, and the other two are aggressive. The aggressive players hit harder with the same strokes, as they have more physical energy, and also serve harder. The closest comparison for O’Connell’s size and style combination would be Dusan Lajovic, who has had mediocre success.
How O’Connell Stacks Up Against Murray
What does all this mean for a matchup with Murray? The first thing is that it figures to be a defensive contest. O’Connell is an all-court player, but of the defensive variety. Murray is a counterpuncher, and the match should feature long rallies with each player jostling for position for a quality look, not wanting to pull the trigger until they’ve constructed the point to a place that gives them a high-percentage opportunity, while also waiting for the opponent to make a mistake. A chess match, in short.
Pace is Key
Secondly, O’Connell’s small muscle group strokes don’t handle pace very well, though they create it. This means he may have trouble on Murray’s first serve, which comes in heavy, but will handle the second serve skillfully. If O’Connell is to pick his shots strategically, he would do very well to attack Murray’s second serve. Murray, as a still-great returner, should handle O’Connell’s serves without difficulty.
Within rallies, Murray will get a lot of looks at balls with low pace, though he will have to be careful about giving O’Connell junk, as the Aussie will tend to handle the slower pace very well with his whippy strokes. Murray can often get himself out of a jam with his deep and slow backhand slice, but the stroke is less effective against a player like O’Connell, who creates pace well (as opposed to a player like Dominic Thiem who thrives on absorbing and re-directing the pace of his opponent). Conversely, Murray can do a lot of damage with his heavy forehand, to either wing, as the small muscle groups around the elbow and wrist don’t handle pace well. O’Connell’s backhand in particular would have trouble holding up under an extended barrage of heavy forehands.
Half-volleys and Net Play
The small muscle group backhand makes for a wonderful half-volley (see: Federer), which is very nice to have as an all-court player, as it comes in handy when approaching the net and being forced to play balls from inside the baseline. The problem is that the ball comes back so hard these days that you don’t have time to get to the net, and you end up operating your lovely half-volley from no man’s land, where you have trouble putting the stroke away or getting into good position afterwards. The two-hander, or the power one-hander, makes more sense in today’s tennis.
One might think that O’Connell could utilize his fine touch and bring Murray to the net, where he would likely outplay the Scot. But in order to do so, he needs to have space to execute drop shots. And without a heavy stroke on either side, he will have difficulty pushing Murray far enough behind the baseline to warrant drop shots on a hard court. Murray’s movement is limited, and this may be the best recourse the Aussie has, but he will have to be very on-point with his drops to make it successful.
Chance of Victory for the Underdog?
The greatest victory of a player with O’Connell’s strokes over someone relatively like Murray (on a hard court) was Arthur Ashe’s victory in the 1975 US Open final over Jimmy Connors. The biggest difference is that Connors was more aggressive than Murray. O’Connell may not want to dip into a 50-year old playbook, but some principles of tennis never change. Junk-balling Murray may, after all, be the best strategy.
Murray, then, will likely target O’Connell’s backhand, especially on serve, and should find success creating errors and short ball opportunities from either wing. O’Connell would do well to slice Murray’s forehand and not give him an opportunity to utilize pace, while also looking for drop shot opportunities to take advantage of Murray’s mobility and his own deft touch at the net. However, I think it would require an inspired effort from the Aussie to make it all work, and I would expect Murray to handle this one with relative ease.
Main Photo from Getty.
