We are down to the quarterfinal round at the ATP Qatar Open in Doha! It’s been a fascinating week of tennis in the Middle East, but the field has narrowed to eight contenders looking to lift the winner’s trophy at the end of the week.
Who will win and who will fall short? I give my best guesses!
ATP Doha Quarterfinal Predictions
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Marton Fucsovics
Head to Head: 5-3 Fucsovics
Nikoloz Basilashvili picked up his first win of the season in Doha, taking out Elias Ymer in straight sets. Basilashvili, who won this tournament last season, held Ymer to 55% of his service points won and broke Ymer’s serve four times. Marton Fucsovics is in good form and started off Doha well, with wins over Lloyd Harris and Soonwoo Kwon. Fucsovics’ baseline game has been impressive, as he’s putting the ball consistently deep in the court.
Fucsovics leads the head to head 5-3, but they haven’t played since 2019. Basilashvili seems to be finding his form and is clearly comfortable with the conditions in Doha, but he’s still fairly erratic from the baseline and is hard to trust at the moment. Fucsovics is hitting his spots on serve (besides the Kwon match) and has played excellent tennis from the baseline, staying patient and waiting for his moments to strike. Expect Fucsovics to advance to the semifinals.
Prediction: Fucsovics in 3
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Head to Head: 1-0 Davidovich Fokina
Roberto Bautista Agut played out of his mind to beat Andy Murray 6-0 6-1. Bautista Agut broke Murray’s serve five times, won 63% of return points, and didn’t get broken himself. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina survived a tough three-setter against Daniel Evans to reach the quarterfinals in Doha. Davidovich Fokina’s ability to control the baseline with his backhand and his placement around the court were key to him winning that match.
Davidovich Fokina leads the head to 1-0, having beaten Bautista Agut in straight sets last week in Rotterdam. However, with that said, I like Bautista Agut to get revenge this time around in the battle of the Spaniards. Bautista Agut, generally, has the more solid baseline game, his groundstrokes have a bit more pop to them than Davidovich Fokina’s, and the win against Murray gives me the sense that his game is completely locked in. While this match should be close, expect Bautista Agut to advance in the end.
Prediction: Bautista Agut in 3
Marin Cilic vs Karen Khachanov
Head to Head: 2-1 Cilic
Marin Cilic had an impressive victory in first Doha match, taking out Botic Van De Zandschulp 6-3, 7-5. Cilic did a great job of exploiting the Van De Zandschulp second serve, winning 14/21 points and breaking Van De Zandschulp three times in two sets. Karen Khachanov has now beaten Mackenzie McDonald and Emil Ruusuvuori in Doha without dropping a set. Against Ruusuvuori, Khachanov won an impressive 88% of his first-serve points and was only broken once all match.
Cilic leads the head to head 2-1, although Khachanov won their latest meeting this season in Adelaide in straight sets. Cilic has a big serve and powerful groundstrokes, but he can spray unforced errors at times. Khachanov has been serving very well and controlling the baseline with his powerful groundstrokes, especially from the forehand side. I think that Khachanov is a little steadier from the baseline at this point in his career and that will be the difference in this match. Khachanov moves on.
Prediction: Khachanov in 3
Arthur Rinderknech vs Denis Shapovalov
Head to Head: 1-0 Shapovalov
Arthur Rinderknech has recovered from a set deficit in both of his matches in Doha so far, with two comeback victories over Jiri Vesely and Alexander Bublik. Rinderknech’s first serve has been a huge weapon in these matches, having won at least 75% of his first serves against both Vesely and Bublik. Denis Shapovalov easily beat Alex Molcan to start off his Doha campaign. Shapovalov won 80% of his service points and didn’t face a break point all match.
Shapovalov leads the head to head 1-0, having won a tight set late last season on an indoor hard court in Stockholm. This will be a match where first-strike tennis is key and plenty of serves don’t come back. However, Shapovalov’s game is much more developed than Rinderknech’s and that will be the difference in this match. Shapovalov will be a semifinalist in Doha, although Rinderknech won’t make it easy on him.
Prediction: Shapovalov in 3
Main Photo from Getty.
